St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction & Picks – 9/3/2024

• Date: September 3, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Steven Matz - Cardinals
  • Aaron Civale - Brewers

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to face the St. Louis Cardinals on September 3, 2024, they are in a strong position, holding a record of 81-57 and currently contending for the National League Central title. The Cardinals, sitting at 69-69, are having an average season, neither in contention for a division crown nor appearing to make a playoff push.

In their last game, the Brewers showcased their all-around ability, beating the Cardinals and reflecting their strong form as they aim to keep their momentum going in this pivotal matchup. The Brewers will send Aaron Civale to the mound, a right-hander who has had a challenging season, posting a 5-8 record and a 4.59 ERA. However, Civale's advanced statistics suggest he's been somewhat unlucky, with a lower 4.09 xERA that indicates potential for improvement. He projects to pitch an average of 5.4 innings today, allowing 2.4 earned runs, which bodes well against a Cardinals lineup ranked 15th in MLB offensively.

On the other side, the Cardinals will counter with Steven Matz, a left-handed pitcher struggling on the mound this year with a 1-2 record and a dismal 6.18 ERA. Matz's projections are not encouraging, as he is expected to pitch only 4.8 innings while allowing 2.6 earned runs. The Cardinals' offense has performed below average, ranking 15th in team batting average and 22nd in home runs, creating a tough landscape against a Brewers pitching staff that ranks 11th in overall effectiveness.

Despite the Brewers’ strong betting favorite status with a moneyline of -145, their implied team total projects at 4.56 runs, which is favorable against a struggling Cardinals squad that has averaged just 3.94 runs per game in recent matchups. With the Brewers' offensive strength, currently ranked 9th in MLB, matched against the Cardinals' underwhelming performance, this game looks promising for Milwaukee.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense projects as the 3rd-strongest among all the teams playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Alec Burleson has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 7% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the past 14 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 5th-least strikeout-prone lineup today is the St. Louis Cardinals with a 20.4% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Aaron Civale is expected to post an average of 16.4 outs in today's game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Gary Sanchez's average exit velocity has fallen off in recent games; his 90.2-mph seasonal EV has decreased to 77.7-mph over the last 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Milwaukee Brewers hitters as a unit rank 22nd- in baseball for power this year when assessing with their 7.4% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 62 games at home (+12.35 Units / 18% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 70 games (+4.45 Units / 6% ROI)
• Rhys Hoskins has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+13.25 Units / 68% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.02 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.49

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