St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 8/13/2024

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Details

• Date: August 13, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Erick Fedde - Cardinals
  • Hunter Greene - Reds

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

As the Cincinnati Reds host the St. Louis Cardinals on August 13, 2024, both teams find themselves in a tightly contested National League Central matchup. The Reds, with a record of 58-61, and the Cardinals, sitting at 60-59, are entering this game after having exchanged wins in their recent series, highlighting the competitive nature of their rivalry.

Projected starters Hunter Greene for the Reds and Erick Fedde for the Cardinals present an intriguing pitching duel. Greene has enjoyed an impressive season with an 8-4 record and an excellent ERA of 2.90 over 23 starts. However, his 4.19 xFIP suggests he may have ridden a wave of good fortune, implying potential regression. Conversely, Fedde, with his solid 3.28 ERA and 8-5 record, is also due for some scrutiny as his 4.02 xFIP indicates he might be living on borrowed time.

On offense, both teams are middle-of-the-pack, with the Reds ranked 19th overall and the Cardinals slightly behind at 17th. Cincinnati's recent success can be attributed to Spencer Steer, who has emerged as their best hitter over the last week, boasting a .400 batting average with 9 RBIs. On the other hand, Paul Goldschmidt leads the Cardinals, providing consistent production despite a lesser recent outing.

From a betting perspective, the Reds hold a -135 moneyline, reflecting a close contest. Their implied team total of 4.50 runs suggests confidence in Greene, who is projected to strike out 6.2 batters today—an encouraging sign. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are positioned with a more modest 4.00 team total. With both teams battling to keep their heads above water, this clash is poised to be a pivotal moment in their season.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Erick Fedde has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying 3.0 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average hurler.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Masyn Winn's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 89.7-mph figure last year has dropped to 87.2-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals' bullpen ranks as the 10th-best out of all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Hunter Greene's slider rate has dropped by 5.6% from last year to this one (40.5% to 34.9%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Jake Fraley has had some very good luck with his batting average this year; his .274 BA is significantly inflated relative to his .229 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Jeimer Candelario pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.7% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 8th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 62 of their last 108 games (+9.20 Units / 6% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.90 Units / 23% ROI)
• Willson Contreras has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 21 away games (+7.80 Units / 37% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 5.35 vs Cincinnati Reds 5.02

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.