St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves Game 2 Prediction – 7/20/2024

St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves Game 2 Details

• Date: July 20, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sonny Gray - Cardinals
  • Bryce Elder - Braves

Cardinals vs Braves Game 2 Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves Game 2 Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves Game 2 Betting Preview

The Atlanta Braves and St. Louis Cardinals are set to square off in the second game of a double-header on July 20, 2024, at Truist Park. The Braves, who are having a solid season with a 53-42 record, will host the Cardinals, who are also performing well with a 50-46 record. Both teams are in the thick of the playoff race, making this National League matchup crucial.

The Braves will send Bryce Elder to the mound, who has struggled this season with a 5.71 ERA and a 1-3 record over seven starts. However, his 4.57 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit unlucky and could improve moving forward. Elder's high ground-ball rate (52%) could play well against a Cardinals offense that ranks 25th in MLB in home runs this season.

On the other side, the Cardinals will counter with Sonny Gray, who has been excellent with a 3.34 ERA and a 9-6 record in 17 starts. Gray's 2.76 xFIP indicates that he's been slightly unlucky as well and could perform even better. The Braves’ offense, which ranks 10th in home runs, might find it challenging to capitalize against Gray's strike-throwing prowess, as they are the 5th least walking team in MLB.

Both teams feature strong bullpens, with the Cardinals ranked 5th and the Braves 6th in our advanced-stat Power Rankings. This game could come down to which bullpen can hold the lead, especially considering it is the second game of a double-header, potentially leading to fatigue.

Betting markets see this as a close contest, with the Braves' moneyline set at -120, implying a 52% win probability. The Cardinals' moneyline is +100, translating to a 48% win probability. Given the Braves' slight edge in implied win probability and their recent victory, they might have a slight upper hand in this critical matchup.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Over his previous 3 outings, Sonny Gray has suffered a big decline in his fastball spin rate: from 2545 rpm over the entire season to 2483 rpm of late.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Atlanta's 3rd-worst outfield defense on the slate today creates a favorable matchup for Nolan Gorman, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen projects as the 5th-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Because groundball batters have a significant advantage over flyball pitchers, Bryce Elder and his 49% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a troublesome spot in this matchup squaring off against 0 opposing GB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Jarred Kelenic has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (62% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Jarred Kelenic hits many of his flyballs to center field (41% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 5th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 51 of their last 77 games (+26.55 Units / 31% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 16 away games (+5.20 Units / 27% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves Game 2 Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.54 vs Atlanta Braves 4.31

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