St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 7/19/2024

St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves Details

• Date: July 19, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sonny Gray - Cardinals
  • Spencer Schwellenbach - Braves

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

As the Atlanta Braves host the St. Louis Cardinals on July 19, 2024, at Truist Park, this National League matchup promises a close contest. The Braves have a commendable 53-42 record, while the Cardinals come in at 50-46. Both teams are performing well this season, with the Braves holding a slight edge.

Spencer Schwellenbach will take the mound for the Braves, marking his 9th start of the season. Schwellenbach, the #59 ranked starting pitcher according to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, has been solid despite some bad luck. His 4.43 ERA, paired with a better 3.86 xFIP, indicates he might be due for a turnaround. Schwellenbach is projected to pitch 5.1 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, striking out 4.6 batters, and issuing 1.3 walks.

On the other side, Sonny Gray starts for the Cardinals. Gray, ranked #16, has been outstanding this year with a 3.34 ERA and an even better 2.76 xFIP, suggesting he has been somewhat unlucky as well. Gray’s projections include 5.2 innings pitched, 2.3 earned runs, 5.8 strikeouts, and 1.5 walks.

Offensively, the Braves, ranked 14th overall, have shown decent power, ranking 10th in home runs. However, they struggle with baserunning, ranking 26th in stolen bases. In contrast, the Cardinals' offense ranks 19th overall, with a respectful 13th in batting average but a poor 25th in home runs.

The bullpens are another area to watch. The Braves' bullpen is ranked 6th, while the Cardinals boast the 4th best bullpen. Both teams will likely rely on their relief corps to secure a win in a game projected to have a low total of 7.5 runs.

Betting markets have the Braves slightly favored with a moneyline of -130, implying a 54% win probability. The Cardinals sit at +110 with a 46% implied win probability. Considering these projections, the Braves’ strong season performance and their slight edge in pitching and power make them a compelling pick for this matchup.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Sonny Gray has recorded 17.6 outs per game per started this year, grading out in the 88th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Masyn Winn's average exit velocity has declined of late; his 85.8-mph seasonal EV has fallen off to 79.5-mph over the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals' bullpen profiles as the 4th-best out of all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Spencer Schwellenbach must realize this, because he has used his secondary pitches a lot this year: 67.9% of the time, ranking in the 93rd percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Ozzie Albies is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of St. Louis (#1-best of all teams on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Jarred Kelenic hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 80 games (+27.35 Units / 31% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 20 away games (+5.20 Units / 22% ROI)
• Adam Duvall has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+15.25 Units / 49% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.45 vs Atlanta Braves 4.29

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