St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves Betting Pick & Preview – 7/21/2024

St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves Details

• Date: July 21, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Miles Mikolas - Cardinals
  • Spencer Schwellenbach - Braves

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

The Atlanta Braves are set to host the St. Louis Cardinals on July 21, 2024, at Truist Park in the third game of their series. This National League showdown features two teams having solid seasons, with the Braves sporting a 54-43 record and the Cardinals at 51-47. Both teams are in the mix for playoff spots, adding extra weight to this matchup.

On the mound, the Braves will start Spencer Schwellenbach, a right-hander who has shown promise this season. Schwellenbach has a 3-4 record and a 4.43 ERA, but his 3.86 xFIP, a key advanced stat, suggests he's been a bit unlucky and could perform better moving forward. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Schwellenbach ranks as the 59th best starting pitcher out of approximately 350, indicating solid performance potential.

The Cardinals counter with Miles Mikolas, who has struggled this season, evidenced by his 5.13 ERA. Despite his 7-8 record, Mikolas' 4.21 xFIP hints that he's also been unlucky and might improve. However, he's projected to allow 3.2 earned runs and 6.1 hits over 5.3 innings on average, which doesn't bode well against an Atlanta offense ranked 14th in MLB.

Offensively, the Braves hold a slight edge. Their lineup ranks 14th in power rankings, 17th in batting average, and a notable 10th in home runs. The Cardinals' offense ranks 19th in power rankings and 13th in batting average but a low 25th in home runs, lacking the same power threat as Atlanta. Both teams' bullpens are strong, with the Braves ranked 7th and the Cardinals 6th.

The Braves are favorites with a moneyline of -145, giving them a 57% implied win probability, while the Cardinals sit at +125. With the Braves not only playing at home but also possessing a slight edge both on the mound and in the lineup, Atlanta looks poised to take this game. With the total set at 8.5 runs, expect a competitive game where the Braves' balanced attack and Schwellenbach's potential improvement might be the difference.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Miles Mikolas has gone to his curveball 7.9% less often this season (12.1%) than he did last season (20%).

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Lars Nootbaar is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 62% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen ranks as the 5th-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Among all the teams playing today, the weakest outfield defense is that of the the Atlanta Braves.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Marcell Ozuna has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.3-mph to 97.4-mph in the past two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Jarred Kelenic hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41% — 100th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 5th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 41 games at home (+17.90 Units / 39% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 24 games (+6.80 Units / 26% ROI)
• Alec Burleson has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 22 games (+17.40 Units / 79% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.62 vs Atlanta Braves 5.17

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