St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction For 7/24/2024

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Details

• Date: July 24, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Matthew Liberatore - Cardinals
  • Martin Perez - Pirates

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates take on the St. Louis Cardinals at PNC Park on July 24, 2024. This National League Central matchup is the third game in the series between these division rivals. The Pirates are having an average season with a record of 51-50, while the Cardinals boast a slightly above-average season at 53-48.

The Pirates will have Martin Perez on the mound, and he’s been struggling this year. With a 1-5 record and a high ERA of 5.61, it’s clear that Perez has faced some hard luck, as evidenced by his 4.50 xFIP, suggesting better days could be ahead. He projects to pitch 5.5 innings on average today, allowing 3.0 earned runs, which isn’t promising.

On the flip side, the Cardinals will trot out Matthew Liberatore, another left-hander who has split time between the bullpen and the starting rotation. Liberatore’s ERA of 4.15 is better than Perez's, but he’s projected to pitch a mere 4.1 innings and allow 2.5 earned runs, both of which are concerning indicators.

The Pirates' offense has been struggling, ranked 27th in the league overall, and their team batting average only ranks 25th. Even though Oneil Cruz has been hot lately—batting .368 with a 1.165 OPS over the last week—the lineup as a whole has had issues. On the other hand, the Cardinals’ offense ranks 18th overall, which is considerably better. Nolan Gorman has been their standout performer recently, posting a .910 OPS with two home runs in the last week.

Betting markets currently have this game as a toss-up with both teams at -110, reflecting an implied win probability of 50% for each. Given the Pirates’ strong bullpen and Perez’s unlucky peripherals, there may be value in backing Pittsburgh to secure a win in what should be a tightly contested game.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Tallying 64.8 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Matthew Liberatore places him the 1st percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Masyn Winn has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.7-mph dropping to 81.6-mph in the past 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen ranks as the 4th-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Martin Perez's change-up utilization has fallen by 5.8% from last year to this one (27.2% to 21.4%) .

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (16.4) provides evidence that Michael A. Taylor has had some very poor luck this year with his 6.1 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Andrew McCutchen pulls many of his flyballs (33.6% — 78th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 9th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 51 of their last 85 games (+13.85 Units / 14% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 21 of their last 37 games (+6.95 Units / 14% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 39 games (+9.05 Units / 22% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.99 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.85

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