St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins Prediction For 6/18/2024

St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals

Jun 18, 2024

Miami Marlins

Miami Marlins
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins Details

  • Date: June 18, 2024
  • Venue: LoanDepot Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Lance Lynn - Cardinals
    • Roddery Munoz - Marlins

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Cardinals -150, Marlins 130
Runline: Cardinals -1.5 110, Marlins 1.5 -130
Over/Under Total: 8 -110

St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
St. Louis Cardinals - 58% St. Louis Cardinals - 53.5%
Miami Marlins - 42% Miami Marlins - 46.5%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins are set to host the St. Louis Cardinals at LoanDepot Park on June 18, 2024, in the second game of their series. The Marlins have had a rough season, holding a 23-49 record, while the Cardinals are sitting at a more respectable 36-35. Given these standings, the Cardinals are the favorites with a moneyline of -150, implying a 57% win probability.

On the mound, Miami will start Roddery Munoz, a right-hander who has struggled this season. Ranked as the 305th best starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, Munoz has a 4.56 ERA but an alarming 6.24 xERA, indicating he's been quite lucky. His 6.61 FIP further suggests regression is likely. Munoz is projected to pitch an average of 5.1 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, 5.2 hits, and 1.8 walks—numbers that do not inspire confidence.

The Cardinals counter with veteran right-hander Lance Lynn, who sports a 3.75 ERA over 14 starts this year. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Lynn is an average pitcher but with a solid track record, he's expected to pitch 5.7 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, 5.7 hits, and 1.5 walks.

Offensively, the Marlins have struggled mightily, ranking 29th in MLB. Their power numbers are particularly poor, sitting dead last in home runs. Contrast this with the Cardinals, who rank 20th in overall offense and 19th in batting average, albeit still lacking power, with a 23rd ranking in home runs.

Over the past week, the Marlins' Jazz Chisholm has been on a hot streak, batting .455 with a 1.220 OPS, while the Cardinals' Ivan Herrera has hit .500 with a 1.248 OPS in his last five games.

The Marlins' bullpen ranks 14th, considered average, while the Cardinals' bullpen is a strength, currently ranked 5th. Given these disparities, the Cardinals are positioned favorably, with their more consistent pitching and slightly better offensive numbers likely giving them the edge in this matchup.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Lance Lynn has recorded 14.9 outs per outing this year, ranking in the 21st percentile.

  • A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Brendan Donovan has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (66% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in today's game.

  • The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Nolan Arenado pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.5% — 99th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 8th-deepest LF fences today.

  • This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

This season, there has been a decline in Josh Bell's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 25.92 ft/sec last year to 25 ft/sec currently.

  • Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

It may be best to expect better numbers for the Miami Marlins offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the unluckiest offense in the league this year.

  • When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 32 games at home (+10.15 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 away games (+5.65 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Jesus Sanchez has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 19 games at home (+7.90 Units / 27% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.74 vs Miami Marlins 4.17

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-135
79% STL
+114
21% MIA

Total Pick Consensus

8.0/-105
9% UN
8.0/-115
91% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/+124
98% STL
+1.5/-148
2% MIA

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
STL
Team Stats
MIA
4.59
ERA
4.18
.268
Batting Avg Against
.242
1.43
WHIP
1.28
.322
BABIP
.302
8.3%
BB%
8.3%
20.4%
K%
25.2%
69.8%
LOB%
72.5%
.259
Batting Avg
.262
.436
SLG
.402
.770
OPS
.719
.333
OBP
.317
STL
Team Records
MIA
26-21
Home
18-31
24-24
Road
14-32
34-34
vRHP
27-35
16-11
vLHP
5-28
19-26
vs>.500
20-35
31-19
vs<.500
12-28
6-4
Last10
2-8
12-8
Last20
6-14
19-11
Last30
10-20
L. Lynn
R. Muñoz
N/A
Innings
N/A
N/A
GS
N/A
N/A
W-L
N/A
N/A
ERA
N/A
N/A
K/9
N/A
N/A
BB/9
N/A
N/A
HR/9
N/A
N/A
LOB%
N/A
N/A
HR/FB%
N/A
N/A
FIP
N/A
N/A
xFIP
N/A

L. Lynn

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
10/7 HOU
Jr N/A
L1-6 N/A
3.2
6
5
5
4
2
46-76
10/1 DET
Peralta N/A
W8-1 N/A
5
4
1
1
4
1
54-81
9/25 CLE
Morgan N/A
L0-6 N/A
6
7
6
6
6
0
70-105
9/18 TEX
Howard N/A
L1-2 N/A
5.1
6
2
1
5
2
53-83
9/12 BOS
Pivetta N/A
W2-1 N/A
5
2
0
0
9
0
47-70

R. Muñoz

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
STL MIA
STL MIA
Consensus
-145
+125
-135
+114
-155
+130
-135
+114
-142
+120
-136
+116
-150
+128
-134
+114
-155
+130
-140
+118
-155
+125
-135
+110
Open
Current
Book
STL MIA
STL MIA
Consensus
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-159)
-1.5 (+125)
+1.5 (-151)
-1.5 (+114)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+124)
+1.5 (-148)
-1.5 (+116)
+1.5 (-140)
-1.5 (+126)
+1.5 (-152)
-1.5 (+112)
+1.5 (-137)
-1.5 (+125)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+115)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+122)
+1.5 (-145)
-1.5 (+105)
+1.5 (-130)
-1.5 (+135)
+1.5 (-160)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.5 (+101)
8.5 (-123)
8.0 (-114)
8.0 (-107)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-118)
8.0 (-102)
8.5 (-102)
8.5 (-120)
8.0 (-112)
8.0 (-108)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-112)
8.0 (-109)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)