Seattle Mariners vs Washington Nationals Prediction, Odds & Picks – 5/26/2024

Seattle Mariners vs Washington Nationals Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 26, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryan Woo - Mariners
  • Patrick Corbin - Nationals

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

In an interleague matchup on May 26, 2024, the Washington Nationals will host the Seattle Mariners at Nationals Park. The Nationals will be looking to improve their below-average season record of 23-27, while the Mariners aim to maintain their average season performance with a record of 27-26.

The Nationals are projected to start left-handed pitcher Patrick Corbin, who has had a challenging season with a win/loss record of 1-5 and an ERA of 6.29. However, his 4.60 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward. On the other hand, the Mariners are expected to start right-handed pitcher Bryan Woo, who has been impressive this season with a record of 2-0 and an outstanding ERA of 0.57. However, his 2.96 xFIP indicates that he may not be able to sustain this level of success.

Corbin, a low-strikeout pitcher, will face a Mariners offense that ranks second in the MLB in strikeouts. This matchup could give Corbin an advantage, as his strength aligns with the Mariners' weakness. Conversely, Woo, a high-strikeout pitcher, will face a Nationals offense that ranks second in the league with the fewest strikeouts. This could pose a challenge for Woo, as he may struggle to capitalize on his biggest strength against a disciplined Nationals lineup.

The Nationals offense has struggled this season, ranking 27th in the MLB. However, they have shown promise in team batting average, ranking 6th in the league. In contrast, the Mariners offense also ranks low, sitting at 26th in the MLB. Both teams have struggled in terms of home runs, with the Nationals ranking 29th and the Mariners 13th. In terms of stolen bases, the Nationals rank 14th, while the Mariners rank 18th.

When it comes to the bullpens, the Nationals rank 28th, while the Mariners rank 23rd according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. This suggests that both teams have struggled in bullpen performance this season.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Mariners are favored with a projected win probability of 59%, while the Nationals have a projected win probability of 41%. The implied team total for the Nationals is 4.01 runs, while the Mariners have a high implied team total of 4.99 runs.

Based on the matchup, the Mariners have the advantage with a stronger pitcher and a slightly better overall record this season. However, baseball is unpredictable, and anything can happen on any given day. Fans and bettors alike will be eagerly awaiting this interleague showdown between the Nationals and the Mariners at Nationals Park.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Bryan Woo's 94.3-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 76th percentile out of all starting pitchers.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Mitch Haniger has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (87% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Projected catcher Cal Raleigh grades out as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Patrick Corbin projects to allow an average of 3.52 earned runs in this game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Jacob Young's speed has fallen off this year. His 30 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 29.41 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals' bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst among all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 44 games (+9.30 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 14 games (+2.60 Units / 17% ROI)
• Jesse Winker has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 26 games (+10.05 Units / 38% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 5.8 vs Washington Nationals 4.51

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.