Seattle Mariners vs Oakland Athletics Prediction & Picks 9/2/2024

• Date: September 2, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Gilbert - Mariners
  • Osvaldo Bido - Athletics

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

On September 2, 2024, the Oakland Athletics will host the Seattle Mariners at Oakland Coliseum for the first game of their series. Both teams are struggling to find their rhythm, with the Athletics holding a record of 59-78, while the Mariners sit at 69-68. This American League West matchup features a stark contrast in pitching prowess, as the Athletics will send out Osvaldo Bido, who ranks 150th among starting pitchers, while Logan Gilbert of the Mariners stands a solid 23rd.

In their previous outings, the Mariners fell to the Los Angeles Angels, while the Athletics lost to the Texas Rangers. Despite ranking 4th in home runs, their overall offensive performance has been lackluster, sitting at 27th in batting average.

Osvaldo Bido has been somewhat fortunate this season with a 3.21 ERA, but his 4.71 xFIP suggests he may not maintain this level of success. He projects to pitch only 4.8 innings today, allowing 2.3 earned runs and 4.2 hits, which could spell trouble against a Mariners team that, while not firing on all cylinders, still has the potential to capitalize on mistakes.

On the other hand, Logan Gilbert brings a strong strikeout capability, boasting a 26.0 K% this year. Given that the Athletics rank 2nd in MLB for most strikeouts, Gilbert could exploit this weakness effectively. With a low game total of 7.5 runs and the Athletics as underdogs with an implied team total of just 3.49 runs, this matchup heavily favors the Mariners, especially with their bullpen rated 24th, compared to Oakland's 8th.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Logan Gilbert's higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this season (67.2% vs. 57.9% last season) should work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Extreme groundball batters like Justin Turner are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Osvaldo Bido.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

In today's game, Cal Raleigh is at a disadvantage facing the league's 10th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 40.4% rate (99th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Out of all starting pitchers, Osvaldo Bido's fastball spin rate of 2382 rpm grades out in the 78th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Max Schuemann has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 6.1% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past two weeks.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Oakland Athletics have 5 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Max Schuemann, Zack Gelof, Daz Cameron, Shea Langeliers, Brent Rooker).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Run Line in 33 of their last 53 games (+9.50 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 32 away games (+9.10 Units / 26% ROI)
• Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 away games (+11.90 Units / 49% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.52 vs Oakland Athletics 3.76

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.