Seattle Mariners vs Oakland Athletics Prediction, Odds & Picks – 9/4/2024

• Date: September 4, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • George Kirby - Mariners
  • JP Sears - Athletics

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

As the Seattle Mariners prepare to face off against the Oakland Athletics on September 4, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of challenging seasons, with the Mariners sitting at 69-69 and the Athletics struggling at 60-78. This American League West matchup has significance for both teams, as they look to gain momentum in the latter part of the season.

In their last game, the Athletics defeated the Mariners in a low-scoring game. The Mariners have struggled overall at the plate, ranking 28th in MLB in team offense and dead last in batting average. That said, Julio Rodriguez has emerged as a bright spot, showcasing his talent with impressive numbers over the past week, including 8 hits and 7 RBIs.

On the mound, the Athletics are projected to start JP Sears, who has had a modest year with an 11-9 record and a 4.21 ERA that suggests he has been a bit lucky given his 4.74 xFIP. Sears’s ability to limit strikeouts may work in his favor against the Mariners’ high-strikeout offense, which ranks 1st in MLB for strikeouts. While Sears’s projections suggest he may struggle with walks and hits, he could find some success if he keeps the ball in the park.

The Mariners counter with George Kirby, a solid right-handed pitcher boasting a 3.63 ERA this season and a Power Ranking of 24th among all starters. Kirby's projections indicate that he should pitch effectively, allowing just 2.2 earned runs while striking out 6.1 batters on average.

With low Game Total of 7.5 runs, this matchup could hinge on pitching performances. The Athletics are underdogs with a moneyline of +120, while the Mariners are favored at -140. As both teams look to improve their standing, this game promises to be a pivotal moment in their seasons.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

George Kirby's 95.3-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 87th percentile out of all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Cal Raleigh is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Oakland (#2-worst of all teams on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The Seattle Mariners bullpen ranks as the 7th-worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

In the last 14 days, Max Schuemann's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.9% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Tristan Gray ranks in the 2nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 42 games (+12.30 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 37 away games (+11.90 Units / 29% ROI)
• JJ Bleday has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 37 games (+14.80 Units / 40% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.6 vs Oakland Athletics 3.69

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