Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins Betting Pick & Preview – 6/21/2024

Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins Details

• Date: June 21, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • George Kirby - Mariners
  • Trevor Rogers - Marlins

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

As the Miami Marlins prepare to host the Seattle Mariners on June 21, 2024, at LoanDepot Park, both teams are coming off contrasting seasons. The Marlins, with a dismal 25-49 record, are struggling mightily, while the Mariners have been solid, boasting a 44-33 record.

The Marlins will send left-hander Trevor Rogers to the mound. Rogers has had a tough year, holding a 1-8 record and a 5.09 ERA across 14 starts. His xFIP of 4.48 suggests he’s been a bit unlucky, but his overall performance has been subpar. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects Rogers to pitch an average of 5.0 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs and striking out 5.0 batters. This is a critical start for Rogers, as the Marlins' offense ranks a miserable 29th in runs scored and home runs, making run support scarce.

On the other side, the Mariners will counter with right-hander George Kirby, who has been excellent this season. Kirby holds a 6-5 record with a solid 3.54 ERA in 15 starts. Interestingly, his FIP of 2.98 indicates he’s pitched even better than his ERA suggests. Kirby is projected to pitch 6.0 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs and striking out 5.7 batters. The Mariners will look to capitalize on their power, as they rank 8th in home runs despite a 29th place ranking in team batting average.

The Marlins' bullpen is ranked 20th by advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Mariners' bullpen is even worse at 25th. This game may come down to which bullpen can hold up under pressure.

Offensively, the Marlins will rely on Jazz Chisholm, who has been hot over the last week with a .467 batting average and a 1.126 OPS. For the Mariners, Victor Robles has been tearing it up, hitting .600 with a 1.267 OPS over the last seven days.

With the Mariners favored at -160 and an implied win probability of 59%, the betting markets clearly favor Seattle. However, given George Kirby's impressive numbers and the Marlins' offensive struggles, this seems like a reasonable expectation. Keep an eye on how Rogers handles the high-strikeout Mariners lineup; his ability to exploit their weakness could be a key factor.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Tallying 17.3 outs per start this year on average, George Kirby checks in at the 80th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

J.P. Crawford has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.6-mph to 96.7-mph over the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners' bullpen ranks as the 6th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

The Seattle Mariners have 8 bats in the projected offense that will have the handedness advantage over Trevor Rogers in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Nick Fortes's true offensive talent to be a .274, providing some evidence that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .087 gap between that mark and his actual .187 wOBA.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

Jesus Sanchez has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.9%) but may find it hard to clear the game's 8th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 66 games (+9.25 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 39 games (+5.90 Units / 11% ROI)
• Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 23 games at home (+13.70 Units / 30% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.91 vs Miami Marlins 3.87

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.