Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 6/20/2024

Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians Details

• Date: June 20, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Castillo - Mariners
  • Logan Allen - Guardians

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Cleveland Guardians and the Seattle Mariners are set for an intriguing American League clash on June 20, 2024, at Progressive Field. Both teams are having strong seasons, with the Guardians holding a 45-26 record and the Mariners not far behind at 44-32. This matchup is the third game in their series, adding an extra layer of intensity as both clubs look to gain an edge in the tightly contested standings.

The Guardians come into this game with a solid home-field advantage and a notable offensive ranking. Their lineup, which ranks 12th in the league, has been bolstered by the recent hot streak of Steven Kwan. Over the past week, Kwan has been on fire, hitting .524 with an OPS of 1.260, contributing significantly to Cleveland's offensive output.

On the mound for the Guardians will be Logan Allen, a lefty who, despite his underwhelming 5.30 ERA this season, shows potential for improvement. Allen's 4.48 xFIP suggests he's been a bit unlucky and could perform better moving forward. He's facing a Mariners lineup that struggles with strikeouts, ranking 1st in the league in that category, which could play to Allen's advantage.

Seattle counters with right-hander Luis Castillo, who has been solid with a 3.32 ERA across 15 starts. While Castillo's win-loss record sits at 6-7, he has consistently provided quality innings. However, his strikeout projection for today's game is below average at 4.4, and his walk and hit projections are concerning.

The Mariners' offensive profile is a mixed bag. They rank 28th in team batting average but 6th in home runs, indicating a feast-or-famine approach at the plate. Victor Robles has been a standout hitter over the past week, with a .500 average and a 1.167 OPS, adding a spark to their lineup.

The bullpens could be a deciding factor in this contest. Cleveland's bullpen is ranked 1st according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, contrasting sharply with Seattle's bullpen, which ranks 26th. This disparity could tilt the late innings in favor of the Guardians.

With both teams projected to score around 4.00 runs, and the game total set at 8.0, expect a closely contested battle. The Guardians' strong bullpen and recent offensive surge give them a slight edge in what promises to be an exciting matchup.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Compared to average, Luis Castillo has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an additional 6.4 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Cleveland's #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Cal Raleigh, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Projected catcher Cal Raleigh grades out as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Logan Allen's cutter rate has increased by 7.6% from last season to this one (8.7% to 16.3%) .

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Tyler Freeman has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (63% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians' bullpen grades out as the best out of all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 66 games (+14.02 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 52 games (+9.35 Units / 13% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez has hit the Home Runs Over in 14 of his last 47 games (+32.10 Units / 68% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.35 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.56

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.