Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction, Odds & Picks – 6/19/2024

Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians Details

• Date: June 19, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryan Woo - Mariners
  • Tanner Bibee - Guardians

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

On June 19, 2024, the Cleveland Guardians will host the Seattle Mariners at Progressive Field in the second game of their series. Both teams are having outstanding seasons, with the Guardians boasting a 44-26 record and the Mariners not far behind at 44-31. This American League matchup features two of the top teams vying for playoff positions.

The Guardians are projected to start Tanner Bibee, who has had a solid season with a 4-2 record and a 3.94 ERA. However, his 3.40 xFIP indicates that he has been somewhat unlucky and might see better performance going forward. Bibee is particularly well-suited to face the Mariners, who lead MLB in strikeouts. With Bibee's impressive 27.6 K% this season, he could exploit Seattle's weakness effectively.

On the other side, Bryan Woo will take the mound for the Mariners. Woo has been dominant with a 1.07 ERA across six starts, but his 3.72 xFIP suggests he's been pitching above his head. Woo's projections for today are less optimistic, with THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, expecting him to pitch just 4.1 innings and allow 2.1 earned runs.

Offensively, the Guardians have the edge. They rank 12th in MLB, while the Mariners' offense has struggled, ranking 23rd. Cleveland also boasts the 1st-ranked bullpen, a crucial advantage over Seattle's bullpen, which is ranked 26th.

Adding fuel to the fire, the Guardians’ Will Brennan has been on a tear, batting .438 with a 1.125 OPS over the last week. For Seattle, Victor Robles has been their standout hitter recently, boasting a .600 average and a 1.400 OPS over the last seven days.

Betting markets have set the Guardians' moneyline at -135, implying a 55% win probability, signaling a close contest but leaning towards Cleveland. With better pitching depth and a more balanced offense, the Guardians are well-positioned to take this matchup.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Bryan Woo has utilized his non-fastballs 7.3% less often this year (20.3%) than he did last year (27.6%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

J.P. Crawford has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 7.7% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the last 7 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Seattle Mariners bullpen projects as the 5th-worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

The Cleveland Guardians infield defense profiles as the best out of every team today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Josh Naylor can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (41.1% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 40 of their last 66 games (+10.85 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 46 games (+7.30 Units / 12% ROI)
• Mitch Haniger has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+8.10 Units / 27% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 3.92 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.57

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