Seattle Mariners at St. Louis Cardinals Pick & Prediction – 9/6/2024

• Date: September 6, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryce Miller - Mariners
  • Erick Fedde - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to host the Seattle Mariners on September 6, 2024, both teams find themselves in a tight race for the postseason, albeit with average records of 71-69 and 71-70, respectively. The Cardinals are projected to start right-hander Erick Fedde, who boasts a respectable 3.43 ERA this season, while the Mariners will counter with Bryce Miller, who has a slightly better ERA of 3.30. Both pitchers have been solid, but the Cardinals' bullpen ranks 8th in the league, providing a potential advantage late in the game.

The Cardinals have a slight edge in their offensive rankings, sitting at 18th overall compared to the Mariners' 26th, which suggests they might be better positioned to capitalize on scoring opportunities in this contest. But the bats of the Mariners have woken up over their last couple of games against the Oakland Athletics, setting the stage for an interesting matchup tonight.

Interestingly, while the Cardinals have struggled with power, ranking 22nd in home runs, they have found some offensive rhythm with Paul Goldschmidt leading the charge over the past week, hitting .444 with 12 hits and 1 home run. On the other side, Luke Raley has also been productive for the Mariners, but the team's overall offensive struggles, especially in batting average (30th), make it difficult for them to generate consistent scoring.

The game total is set at a low 7.5 runs, indicating a potentially tight matchup. Betting markets have set the Cardinals' moneyline at -115, suggesting a close contest. Given the projections and current form, St. Louis may have the slight advantage, especially with their strong bullpen and Goldschmidt's recent performance.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Bryce Miller has tallied 17.3 outs per GS this year, grading out in the 81st percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Luke Raley has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.5-mph to 94.8-mph in the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Seattle Mariners bullpen profiles as the 6th-worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Erick Fedde's high utilization rate of his secondary pitches (69.5% this year) ought to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (17.0) implies that Alec Burleson has been very fortunate this year with his 24.4 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Nolan Arenado pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.8% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 6th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 26 games (+6.45 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 36 away games (+10.90 Units / 27% ROI)
• Luke Raley has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 25 games (+26.30 Units / 105% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.19 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.83

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