Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels Prediction For 7/14/2024

Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels Details

• Date: July 14, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Gilbert - Mariners
  • Roansy Contreras - Angels

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Angels and Seattle Mariners are set to clash on July 14, 2024, in the fourth game of their series at Angel Stadium. This American League West matchup features two teams having contrasting seasons, with the Angels struggling at 40-55 and the Mariners performing above average at 52-45.

The Angels, who pulled off an upset with a 2-1 victory over the Mariners on July 13, will look to build on that momentum. Los Angeles was the underdog with a closing Moneyline price of +125 and an implied win probability of 43%, but they managed to snatch the win. The Mariners, who were favorites with a Moneyline price of -145 and an implied win probability of 57%, will aim to bounce back.

On the mound, the Angels are set to start Roansy Contreras, who has had a tough season. Contreras, ranked #267 among starting pitchers, has a 4.78 ERA and has struggled in his limited starts. His most recent outing on July 9 saw him last just 2 innings, allowing 4 earned runs on 5 hits. Contreras's projections for this game are not encouraging, with an average of 4.4 innings and 2.5 earned runs.

In contrast, the Mariners will counter with Logan Gilbert, who has been solid this season. Ranked #41 among starting pitchers, Gilbert boasts a 2.94 ERA and a 6-5 record. Although his xFIP of 3.55 suggests some luck, his 8-inning outing on July 9, with 3 earned runs and 7 strikeouts, highlights his capability. Gilbert's projections for this game include 5.6 innings and 2.7 earned runs.

Offensively, the Angels rank 20th in team batting average but have shown some power with a 16th ranking in home runs. On the other hand, the Mariners struggle with the 29th best team batting average, though they do rank 11th in home runs.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Angels have a 45% win probability, which is 8% higher than the betting market suggests. This indicates potential value in betting on the Angels, as the public often shies away from underdogs, leading sportsbooks to offer more enticing odds. With the Mariners as big favorites, this could be a closer contest than anticipated.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Logan Gilbert has relied on his off-speed and breaking balls 9.9% more often this season (67.8%) than he did last season (57.9%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Jorge Polanco is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 70% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners' bullpen profiles as the 4th-worst among all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Mickey Moniak stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Logan O'Hoppe pulls many of his flyballs (35.8% — 91st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 10th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 43 games at home (+9.65 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 15 away games (+5.65 Units / 34% ROI)
• Ty France has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.90 Units / 29% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 5.21 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.43

Get daily MLB picks here.