Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers Best Bet – 8/13/2024

Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers Details

• Date: August 13, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • George Kirby - Mariners
  • Tarik Skubal - Tigers

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

On August 13, 2024, the Detroit Tigers will host the Seattle Mariners at Comerica Park in what marks the first game of their series. The matchup is crucial for both teams, albeit for different reasons. The Tigers, at 56-63, are currently having a below-average season, while the Mariners sit at 63-56, enjoying an above-average year. With both teams looking to improve their standings, this game carries added significance.

In their last outings, the Tigers managed a tight 5-4 victory over the San Francisco Giants, snapping a losing streak and showcasing their resilience. On the contrary, the Mariners delivered a dominant performance, crushing the New York Mets 12-1, highlighting their offensive prowess.

Starting for the Tigers will be Tarik Skubal, who has emerged as an elite pitcher, currently ranked 1st among all starters in MLB with a remarkable ERA of 2.57 and a solid Win/Loss record of 13-4. Skubal's ability to generate strikeouts—boasting a 30.1% strikeout rate—could provide him with an edge against a Mariners lineup that has struggled with high strikeout rates, ranking 1st in MLB in that category. Notably, in his last start on August 7, Skubal pitched seven innings, allowing only two earned runs while striking out nine.

Conversely, George Kirby, projected to start for the Mariners, holds a respectable 3.13 ERA but has recently struggled, going just five innings and surrendering three earned runs in his last appearance. Kirby, ranked 12th among MLB starters, will need to tighten his performance to maintain the Mariners' momentum.

Offensively, both teams have room for improvement. The Tigers rank 28th in MLB overall, while the Mariners are 26th. According to the leading MLB projection system, the Tigers are expected to average just 3.36 runs this game, slightly lower than the Mariners’ 3.63 projection. With both starting pitchers trending in different directions, it will be fascinating to see how this matchup unfolds.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

George Kirby's four-seamer usage has decreased by 5.5% from last year to this one (39.4% to 33.9%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Victor Robles's average exit velocity has declined lately; his 86.3-mph seasonal mark has dropped to 80.7-mph in the past two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Projected catcher Cal Raleigh projects as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Tarik Skubal's 96.3-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a notable 1.3-mph jump from last season's 95-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Javier Baez has been unlucky this year, notching a .217 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .293 — a .076 disparity.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

Detroit's 88.4-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the worst in Major League Baseball: #22 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 23 of their last 31 games (+14.70 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 28 away games (+8.15 Units / 26% ROI)
• Julio Rodriguez has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 18 away games (+5.50 Units / 15% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 3.86 vs Detroit Tigers 3.58

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