San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins Pick – 6/1/2025

As the Miami Marlins host the San Francisco Giants at LoanDepot Park on June 1, 2025, both teams are eyeing crucial series outcomes, though their trajectories this season tell different stories. The Marlins, currently at 23-33, have struggled but recently eked out a win, defeating the Giants 1-0 in their last matchup. Meanwhile, the Giants sit at 32-26, enjoying a solid season but coming off that same narrow defeat.

Ryan Weathers takes the mound for the Marlins, showcasing an impressive 1.15 ERA, which places him among the 78th percentile of starting pitchers, indicating he's been above average this season. However, the projections suggest he might regress, as his 3.58 xFIP hints at potential luck. In his last start on May 26, Weathers turned in a stellar performance, throwing 5.2 innings without any earned runs. On the other hand, Hayden Birdsong, despite maintaining a decent ERA of 2.48, has struggled with consistency and projects to pitch fewer innings while allowing an average of 2.6 earned runs today.

Offensively, the Marlins rank 16th overall but have been uninspired in terms of power, sitting 23rd in home runs this season. In contrast, the Giants rank 21st in offensive performance, exhibiting their own struggles at the plate with a particularly concerning 25th ranking in team batting average.

Given these matchups, the Marlins' recent victory and Weathers' promising form suggest they could surprise the betting markets, which have the current moneyline favoring the Giants at -125. With the Game Total set at 8.0 runs, expect a tightly contested game that could hinge on effective pitching and the ability of the Marlins' batters to capitalize on any mistakes from Birdsong.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Hayden Birdsong's 2393-rpm spin rate on his fastball this year is a big 102-rpm jump from last season's 2291-rpm rate.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Jung Hoo Lee has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Luis Matos hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.7% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Because groundball batters hold a notable advantage over flyball pitchers, Ryan Weathers and his 43.1% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a hard position in this game squaring off against 3 opposing GB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Extreme groundball bats like Jesus Sanchez tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Hayden Birdsong.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

It may be sensible to expect worse numbers for the Miami Marlins offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 4th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 54 games (+5.00 Units / 8% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 39 games (+14.70 Units / 33% ROI)
• Heliot Ramos has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 away games (+12.45 Units / 138% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.7, Miami Marlins 4.3

• Date: June 1, 2025
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hayden Birdsong - Giants
  • Ryan Weathers - Marlins

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