San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs Prediction & Picks 6/18/2024

San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs Details

• Date: June 18, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Webb - Giants
  • Justin Steele - Cubs

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

The Chicago Cubs and San Francisco Giants are set to clash on June 18, 2024, at Wrigley Field in what promises to be an intriguing National League matchup. Both teams are hovering around the .500 mark this season, with the Cubs sporting a 34-39 record and the Giants at 36-37. This game marks the second in their series, with each team looking to gain an edge.

On the mound, the Cubs will send left-hander Justin Steele, who has been solid this season with a 3.22 ERA and a 3.74 FIP, indicating he's had a bit of luck on his side. Steele's 0-3 record might be deceiving, as he’s been consistent in his nine starts. However, he is projected by THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, to allow 3.0 earned runs over 5.5 innings, which isn't exactly dominant.

The Giants counter with right-hander Logan Webb, who has been elite with a 3.02 ERA despite a 4.66 xERA suggesting he might regress. Webb's 6-5 record over 15 starts shows his ability to keep his team in games. He’s projected to pitch 5.9 innings and allow 2.9 earned runs, which gives him a slight edge over Steele.

Offensively, the Cubs have struggled, ranking 21st in overall offense and 26th in team batting average. Despite their ability to draw walks, facing a low-walk pitcher like Webb could neutralize one of their key strengths. Their offense has been buoyed recently by David Bote, who has posted a scorching .667 batting average and a 1.333 OPS over the last week.

The Giants, on the other hand, have an average offense, ranking 15th overall and 12th in batting average. Jorge Soler has been their standout performer over the past week, hitting .412 with a 1.306 OPS, contributing significantly to their run production.

Both bullpens present a stark contrast; the Cubs' bullpen ranks 22nd, while the Giants boast the 2nd best bullpen according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. This disparity could be a deciding factor in a tightly contested game.

Betting markets are predicting a close game, with both teams having an implied win probability of 50%. However, given the Giants’ slight edge in pitching and bullpen strength, they might just have the upper hand in this matchup.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Logan Webb has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording 7.3 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Heliot Ramos is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Austin Slater has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.7%) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 5th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Justin Steele's four-seam fastball usage has fallen by 5.3% from last season to this one (62.6% to 57.3%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Miguel Amaya's footspeed has decreased this year. His 26.18 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.96 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Chicago Cubs have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Pete Crow-Armstrong, Christopher Morel, Michael Busch).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 38 games (+15.15 Units / 34% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 39 games (+7.50 Units / 17% ROI)
• Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 12 games at home (+10.80 Units / 56% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 5.36 vs Chicago Cubs 4.65

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