San Francisco Giants at Seattle Mariners Prediction For 8/24/2024

• Date: August 24, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Blake Snell - Giants
  • George Kirby - Mariners

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

As the San Francisco Giants and Seattle Mariners gear up for their matchup on August 24, 2024, both teams find themselves in a tight race for respectability, with records of 65-64 and 64-64, respectively. This Interleague game is crucial for both clubs as they seek to improve their standing in a competitive season. The Giants are fresh off a tough loss to the Mariners in extra innings, which underscores the importance of bouncing back against a Mariners team that has struggled offensively this year.

On the mound, George Kirby is projected to start for the Mariners. Kirby, who ranks as the 15th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system, has had a solid season with a 3.40 ERA and a 9-9 record. He projects to pitch an average of 5.8 innings, allowing only 1.7 earned runs, and is known for his low walk rate (3.1 BB%). This matchup may favor Kirby, as he faces a Giants offense that ranks 6th in walks but could struggle against his elite control.

On the other side, Blake Snell takes the mound for the Giants. Snell, ranked 16th among MLB starters, has a 3.67 ERA and is known for his high strikeout rate (33.0 K%). He projects to strike out 8.1 batters today, which could be a significant advantage against a Mariners lineup that leads the league in strikeouts. However, Snell's 2.8 walks per game could provide opportunities for the Mariners if they can be patient at the plate.

Offensively, the Mariners rank 28th in MLB, struggling particularly with batting average, where they sit at 30th. Meanwhile, the Giants' offense is more balanced, ranking 14th overall, but they have also faced challenges, especially in home runs, where they sit 23rd.

With the game total set at a low 6.5 runs, both teams will need to capitalize on any scoring opportunities to secure a much-needed victory. The projections suggest that while this game could be close, the Mariners may have the edge given Kirby's performance metrics against a Giants lineup that has been inconsistent.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Blake Snell has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording 7.6 more adjusted pitches-per-start than league average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Mike Yastrzemski has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants' bullpen profiles as the best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

George Kirby has relied on his four-seamer 5.5% less often this year (33.9%) than he did last year (39.4%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Julio Rodriguez has been unlucky this year, putting up a .298 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .357 — a .059 gap.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

Mitch Garver pulls many of his flyballs (41.3% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 55 of their last 96 games (+9.25 Units / 8% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 64 away games (+9.75 Units / 14% ROI)
• Tyler Fitzgerald has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 39 games (+18.15 Units / 26% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 3.07 vs Seattle Mariners 3.39

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