San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 26, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Webb - Giants
  • Sean Manaea - Mets

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are set to host the San Francisco Giants in an exciting National League matchup at Citi Field on May 26, 2024. The Mets, with a disappointing 21-30 record this season, are hoping to turn their fortunes around against the Giants, who have had an average season so far with a 27-26 record.

On the mound, the Mets are projected to start left-handed pitcher Sean Manaea, who has a solid 3-1 record and an impressive 3.11 ERA this year. However, his 4.69 xFIP suggests that he has been lucky and may not perform as well going forward. On the other side, the Giants will send right-handed pitcher Logan Webb to the mound. Webb has a 4-4 record and an impressive 3.03 ERA, but his 4.84 xERA indicates that he may regress in future outings.

Manaea is projected to pitch an average of 5.3 innings, while Webb is expected to pitch an average of 6.6 innings. Manaea's projection suggests he may allow 2.5 earned runs, strike out 5.7 batters, and surrender 4.7 hits and 1.8 walks on average. Webb, on the other hand, is projected to allow 2.2 earned runs, strike out 5.5 batters, and give up 5.9 hits and 1.3 walks on average.

In terms of offense, the Mets rank 17th in MLB, while the Giants rank 12th. The Mets have an average team batting average of .267, while the Giants have struggled with a team batting average of .221. However, the Mets have shown some power, ranking 11th in team home runs, while the Giants rank 19th in that category. The Giants have struggled in the stolen bases department, ranking 29th, while the Mets sit at a more average 15th.

Based on the current odds, the Mets have an implied win probability of 48%, while the Giants have a 52% implied win probability. The low Game Total of 7.5 runs suggests a potentially tight and low-scoring game.

In the last 7 games, the Mets' best hitter has been Harrison Bader, who has recorded 1 home run, 2 stolen bases, and a .267 batting average with a .922 OPS. Meanwhile, the Giants' best hitter over the same span has been Brett Wisely, who has a scorching .625 batting average with a 1.181 OPS.

Considering the projections, the Giants' stronger offense and bullpen, as well as Logan Webb's elite ranking among starting pitchers, give them an edge in this matchup. However, in baseball, anything can happen, and the Mets will be looking to defy expectations and turn their season around.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Logan Webb has utilized his change-up 5% less often this year (36.6%) than he did last year (41.6%).

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Thairo Estrada has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (64% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants' bullpen ranks as the best out of all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Over his previous 3 GS, Sean Manaea has experienced a big spike in his fastball spin rate: from 2031 rpm over the entire season to 2114 rpm recently.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Omar Narvaez's quickness has declined this year. His 24.38 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 23.09 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Brandon Nimmo has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 24 games at home (+10.10 Units / 36% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in their last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 90% ROI)
• Heliot Ramos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.10 Units / 37% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.24 vs New York Mets 3.31

Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.