San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction For 7/25/2024

San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers Details

• Date: July 25, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Webb - Giants
  • Clayton Kershaw - Dodgers

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

On July 25, 2024, the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Francisco Giants will face off at Dodger Stadium for the fourth game in their series. This National League West matchup features two teams on different trajectories this season. The Dodgers, boasting a 61-42 record, are having a stellar season and are clearly in the hunt for postseason success. On the other hand, the Giants, at 49-54, have struggled to find consistency.

The Dodgers are projected to start Clayton Kershaw, their highly-regarded left-hander who ranks as the #22 best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Kershaw is expected to pitch an average of 5.1 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs while striking out 5.5 batters. Despite his average projections in several areas, his overall track record and current ranking underscore his significance to the Dodgers' rotation.

The Giants will counter with Logan Webb, considered elite with a #11 ranking among starting pitchers. Webb's statistics provide an interesting narrative; his 3.59 ERA is notably better than his 4.29 xERA, suggesting potential regression. However, his 2.92 FIP indicates he's been somewhat unlucky, and improvements could be on the horizon. Webb averages 6.1 innings per start, allowing 2.8 earned runs with 5.2 strikeouts, which are solid numbers for any pitcher.

Offensively, the Dodgers have the upper hand. They rank 1st in overall offense, 6th in batting average, and 3rd in home runs, showcasing their potent lineup. Conversely, the Giants’ offense sits at an average 16th rank, with particular struggles in power (23rd in home runs) and speed (30th in stolen bases).

One factor to watch is Logan Webb's groundball rate. Webb is a high-groundball pitcher (58% GB%) which might neutralize the Dodgers' vaunted power. Additionally, his low walk rate (6.0%) could mitigate one of the Dodgers' strengths, as they rank 2nd in drawing walks.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects this to be a close game, with a slight edge towards the Dodgers in betting markets. However, the Giants' projected win probability is 5% higher than what the betting market suggests, hinting at potential value in betting on the underdog Giants in this matchup.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

The San Francisco Giants outfield defense projects as the best out of every team playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

In terms of his home runs, Wilmer Flores has had some very poor luck this year. His 9.9 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been considerably lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 21.7.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The San Francisco Giants bullpen ranks as the 2nd-best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Clayton Kershaw to have a pitch count in this game, projecting a maximum of 82 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Gavin Lux has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (97% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Jason Heyward pulls many of his flyballs (36.7% — 94th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 8th-deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games at home (+9.55 Units / 26% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 63 games (+7.45 Units / 11% ROI)
• Shohei Ohtani has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 37 games (+9.55 Units / 23% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.51 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 4.28

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