San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers Pick For 7/22/2024

San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers Details

• Date: July 22, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Blake Snell - Giants
  • Gavin Stone - Dodgers

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

On July 22, 2024, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the San Francisco Giants at Dodger Stadium in the opening game of their series. This National League West showdown sees the Dodgers, with a 59-41 record, riding high this season, while the struggling Giants sit at 48-52. The Dodgers' potent offense, ranking 1st in MLB, will aim to capitalize on their power against Blake Snell, who has had a rocky season with a 6.31 ERA but is considered a good pitcher according to advanced metrics.

The Dodgers will look to Gavin Stone to keep the momentum going. Stone, a right-hander, will face off against Blake Snell, a lefty. Snell's high flyball rate (39 FB%) could spell trouble against a Dodgers lineup that ranks 3rd in home runs (129). Additionally, Snell's proclivity to issue walks (10.8 BB%) could be exploited by the Dodgers, who rank 2nd in walks drawn.

The Dodgers' offense isn't just about power; they are 6th in batting average, making them a well-rounded threat. On the flip side, the Giants' offense is much less potent, ranking 24th in home runs and dead last in stolen bases. This could be a significant disadvantage against a Dodgers bullpen ranked 9th according to advanced-stat Power Rankings.

Despite Snell's struggles, his 3.99 xFIP suggests he's been unlucky and might perform better going forward. However, his projection for this game isn't promising, with an average of 4.8 innings and 2.7 earned runs allowed.

The Giants' bullpen is a bright spot, ranking 2nd in the league, and they may need them to step up against a Dodgers team with a high implied team total of 4.56 runs. Meanwhile, the Giants have an implied team total of 3.94 runs, projecting a close contest.

With advanced projections giving the Dodgers a 55% win probability compared to their implied win probability of 57%, this game could be tighter than the odds suggest. Look for the Dodgers to maintain their strong season and exploit their advantages against Snell's struggles and the Giants' average offense.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Blake Snell's 2446-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 89th percentile out of all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Michael Conforto has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 94.9-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 89.9-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Matt Chapman hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 9th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Compared to league average, River Ryan has been granted less leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, recording an -27.3 fewer adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

As it relates to his home runs, Kike Hernandez has had some very good luck this year. His 16.7 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 5.9.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Los Angeles Dodgers projected offense grades out as the 2nd-best of all teams today in terms of overall batting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 45 games at home (+5.35 Units / 11% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 40 of their last 68 games (+9.50 Units / 12% ROI)
• Shohei Ohtani has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 15 games (+13.75 Units / 92% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.69 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 4.9

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