San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds Best Bet – 8/4/2024

San Francisco Giants vs Cincinnati Reds Details

• Date: August 4, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Robbie Ray - Giants
  • Carson Spiers - Reds

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to face the San Francisco Giants on August 4, 2024, both teams are looking to shake off below-average seasons. Currently, the Reds sit at 53-57, while the Giants are slightly better at 55-57. In the third game of this series, the Reds are projected to start right-hander Carson Spiers, who has a solid 3.46 ERA. However, he ranks as the 222nd best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting he’s not particularly effective. The Giants counter with Robbie Ray, a lefty with a more respectable ranking at 78th overall, boasting a 4.82 ERA.

In their last game, the Reds got the better of the Giants, defeating them 6-4. Cincinnati's offense ranks 21st in MLB, with an abysmal 27th in batting average, which could be a significant factor against a capable pitcher like Ray. The projections indicate that Spiers may struggle today, projecting him to allow a concerning 2.9 earned runs over roughly 4.9 innings. In contrast, Ray is expected to pitch about 5.0 innings while allowing around 2.6 earned runs, giving the Giants a potential edge.

Cincinnati does have a silver lining: they rank 1st in MLB for stolen bases, showcasing their speed, but that alone might not be enough against a Giants bullpen ranked 1st overall, which has been stellar this season. With the game total set at a high 9.0 runs, it sets the stage for a competitive matchup. Betting markets lean slightly toward the Giants, who have a moneyline of -130, while the Reds sit at +110, reflecting a tightly contested game ahead.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Robbie Ray is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.6% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #1 HR venue in MLB in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Matt Chapman has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.7-mph to 97-mph in the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants' bullpen projects as the best among all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Considering the 1.26 disparity between Carson Spiers's 3.46 ERA and his 4.72 estimated true talent ERA (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the game this year and should negatively regress in the future.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Typically, batters like Spencer Steer who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Robbie Ray.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Jeimer Candelario pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.8% — 95th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 8th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 49 games at home (+9.00 Units / 17% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 46 of their last 82 games (+6.55 Units / 7% ROI)
• Patrick Bailey has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+11.95 Units / 44% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 5.49 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.33

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