San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs Pick For 6/19/2024

San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs Details

• Date: June 19, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Spencer Howard - Giants
  • Kyle Hendricks - Cubs

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

The Chicago Cubs and San Francisco Giants face off in the third game of their series at Wrigley Field on June 19, 2024. Both teams are having challenging seasons, with the Cubs holding a 35-39 record and the Giants sitting at 36-38. Despite their struggles, the Cubs managed a 5-2 victory yesterday, with their bats showing some life.

Kyle Hendricks takes the mound for the Cubs. It's been a tough season for Hendricks, who has an 8.20 ERA and an 0-4 record through seven starts. His xFIP of 4.38 suggests he's been unlucky, hinting at the potential for better performances. However, Hendricks's last outing was disastrous, allowing 7 earned runs on 11 hits in just 5 innings. He'll need a strong rebound effort to bolster a Cubs bullpen that ranks 23rd in Power Rankings, significantly lower than their year-to-date mark.

Opposing Hendricks is Spencer Howard, whose season has also been filled with ups and downs. With a 4.02 ERA through four starts, Howard has been more fortunate than his underlying numbers (5.48 xFIP) indicate. In his last start, Howard struggled mightily, giving up 4 earned runs and walking four batters in just 2 innings. Facing a Cubs offense that ranks 5th in walks, Howard's control issues could spell trouble.

Offensively, the Cubs are led by Ian Happ, who has been on a tear, hitting .421 with a 1.331 OPS over the last week. Meanwhile, the Giants' top hitter, Jorge Soler, has also been hot, batting .389 with a 1.244 OPS in the past seven games. Despite their individual successes, the Cubs' offense ranks 26th in batting average and 20th in home runs, while the Giants are more balanced, ranking 12th in batting average but dead last in stolen bases.

Today's matchup looks to be another close one, as betting markets set the Cubs' moneyline at -120, giving them a 52% implied win probability. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, also sees a tight game, projecting a 51% win probability for the Cubs. Both teams are expected to put up runs, with the game total set at a high 11.0.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Out of all starters, Spencer Howard's fastball spin rate of 2117 rpm ranks in the 16th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Patrick Bailey has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.2-mph to 95.2-mph over the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Mike Yastrzemski pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.9% — 91st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 5th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Kyle Hendricks to be on a bit of a short leash in this game, projecting a maximum of 83 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

When it comes to his batting average, Michael Busch has been very fortunate this year. His .260 BA has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .212.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Projected catcher Yan Gomes projects as a horrible pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 33 games (+14.60 Units / 38% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 44 games (+5.40 Units / 11% ROI)
• Matt Chapman has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 13 away games (+5.25 Units / 35% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 5.71 vs Chicago Cubs 5.77

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.