San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners Betting Pick & Preview – 9/10/2024

• Date: September 10, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yu Darvish - Padres
  • George Kirby - Mariners

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

As the Seattle Mariners host the San Diego Padres on September 10, 2024, there's plenty at stake in this interleague matchup—especially considering both teams are striving for momentum with only weeks left in the season. The Mariners sit at 73-71, trying to salvage an average campaign, while the Padres are in a stronger position with a record of 81-64, showcasing a solid season thus far.

In the Mariners' most recent game on September 8, they emerged victorious against the St. Louis Cardinals, winning by a convincing 10-4 score. This is a positive sign for their offense, which has struggled overall this season, ranking 24th in MLB. Meanwhile, the Padres faced a disappointing loss to the San Francisco Giants, losing 7-6, raising questions about their defense, particularly after Yu Darvish, who is projected to start today, had a rough outing in his last start, allowing three earned runs in just three innings.

On the mound, the matchup is intriguing. George Kirby, ranked 21st among starting pitchers, has been performing well, sporting a 3.61 ERA this season. He projects to allow an elite 1.9 earned runs per game, although he has struggled with hits and walks, which could have serious implications against a potent Padres lineup. Yu Darvish, though ranked lower at 61st, has a respectable ERA of 3.51 and will need to bounce back from his abbreviated last start.

The leading MLB projection system suggests the Mariners could be undervalued in this matchup, projecting them with a win probability of 58%, while the current betting lines indicate more balance, with both teams at a moneyline of -110. Given the Mariners' improved performance in their last game, they may carry some momentum into this critical showdown.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Yu Darvish has relied on his four-seam fastball 5.1% more often this year (21.8%) than he did last year (16.7%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jurickson Profar's true offensive talent to be a .322, indicating that he has been very fortunate this year given the .040 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .362 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Kyle Higashioka pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.8% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

George Kirby's 95.3-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 87th percentile among all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Jorge Polanco has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (72% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Cal Raleigh (the Mariners's expected catcher in today's game) profiles as an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 56 games at home (+13.10 Units / 21% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 67 games (+11.90 Units / 13% ROI)
• Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 27 games (+8.60 Units / 30% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 3.65 vs Seattle Mariners 3.79

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