Padres vs Dodgers NLDS Game 1 Prediction, Odds & Picks – 10/5/2024

• Date: October 5, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dylan Cease - Padres
  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto - Dodgers

Padres vs Dodgers Game 1 Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Game 1 Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Game 1 Betting Preview

As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to host the San Diego Padres on October 5, 2024, in the first game of their National League Division Series matchup, fans can expect an intriguing pitching duel. The Dodgers, boasting the top-ranked offense in MLB, are led by Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the 12th-best starting pitcher in the league according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Yamamoto has been solid this season with a 7-2 record and a stellar 3.00 ERA. However, his projected performance for this game is mixed, with THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, suggesting he might struggle to go deep into the game, averaging just 4.8 innings with an expected 2.1 earned runs allowed.

On the other side, the Padres, who rank 6th in offensive prowess, counter with Dylan Cease, ranked 22nd among starting pitchers. Cease has recorded a 14-11 win-loss tally with a respectable 3.47 ERA this year. However, projections indicate he might also face challenges, with an average of 4.7 innings pitched and 2.5 earned runs allowed. The Dodgers' power-laden lineup, 3rd in home runs, could capitalize on Cease's high-flyball tendencies, potentially turning those flyballs into homers at Dodger Stadium.

Both bullpens are elite, with the Padres holding the top spot and the Dodgers close behind at 2nd. This could be a crucial factor in what is projected to be a close game, as betting markets give the Dodgers a slight edge with a moneyline of -135, translating to an implied win probability of 55%. The Padres, at +115, have a 45% implied chance, but they might have an advantage with Yamamoto's potential struggles against their contact-heavy lineup, which strikes out the least in MLB. With both teams vying for a strong start to the series, this matchup promises an exciting blend of strategy and skill.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

The San Diego Padres outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-strongest among every team today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Kyle Higashioka is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the strong outfield defense of Los Angeles (#2-best of all teams on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres' bullpen projects as the best among all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yoshinobu Yamamoto to throw 77 pitches in today's game (4th-least on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Will Smith is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Max Muncy pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.2% — 96th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 8th-deepest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 54 of their last 89 games (+19.75 Units / 20% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 63 games (+19.95 Units / 21% ROI)
• Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+9.75 Units / 56% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Game 1 Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.29 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 4.88

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