San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 6/2/2024

San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: June 2, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael King - Padres
  • Cole Ragans - Royals

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

In an exciting Interleague matchup scheduled for June 2, 2024, the Kansas City Royals will play host to the San Diego Padres at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals, with a stellar record of 35-25, are having a great season, while the Padres, sitting at 32-29, are above average.

The Royals are projected to start the elite left-handed pitcher, Cole Ragans, while the Padres will counter with the good right-handed pitcher, Michael King. Ragans has been outstanding this season, with a 4-4 win/loss record and an impressive 3.49 ERA. His peripheral indicator, xFIP, suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform even better going forward. King, on the other hand, has a 4-4 record with a 4.09 ERA. His FIP indicates that he has been performing slightly better than his ERA suggests, but there is room for improvement.

According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Ragans is ranked as the 15th best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers, highlighting his elite skills. King, on the other hand, ranks 49th, making him a good pitcher in comparison.

The Royals offense has been impressive this season, ranking 8th best in MLB. However, they have struggled in team batting average, ranking 19th, and team home runs, ranking 26th. Their strong suit has been stolen bases, where they rank 4th. The Padres offense has also been solid, ranking 9th best in MLB. They struggle in team batting average, ranking 20th, but excel in team home runs, ranking 10th, and stolen bases, ranking 7th.

Looking at the bullpens, the Royals rank 25th, while the Padres rank 8th, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. This suggests that the Padres may have an advantage in the later innings.

In their last 7 games, the Royals' best hitter has been Vinnie Pasquantino, who has recorded 8 hits, 7 RBIs, and 2 home runs, with a batting average of .348 and an OPS of 1.071. Meanwhile, Donovan Solano has been the Padres' standout hitter, with 9 hits, 1 home run, a batting average of .529, and an OPS of 1.365 over the same period.

One factor to consider is that King is a high-walk pitcher, facing a Royals offense that ranks 1st in the least walks in MLB. This matchup could potentially work in King's favor if the Royals' impatience at the plate prevents them from capitalizing on his control issues.

The game total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring in this game. The moneyline odds favor the Royals at -130, implying a 54% win probability, while the Padres sit at +110 with a 46% win probability. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects a 50% win probability for both teams, suggesting a close game.

Based on the current odds, the Royals have a high implied team total of 4.45 runs, while the Padres have an average implied team total of 4.05 runs. THE BAT X projects the Royals to score 4.61 runs on average, while the Padres are projected to score 4.90 runs.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Compared to the average starter, Michael King has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an additional 4.1 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Luis Arraez's 3.5% Barrel% (a reliable stat to evaluate power) grades out in the 10th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

In today's matchup, Jackson Merrill is at a disadvantage facing the league's 4th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 41.4% rate (100th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Cole Ragans has a large reverse platoon split and has the benefit of facing 6 opposite-handed batters in this matchup.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Salvador Perez's speed has gotten better this year. His 24.24 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 24.76 ft/sec now.

• Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

The Kansas City Royals have done a favorable job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-contacted balls. Their 13.6° figure is among the highest in Major League Baseball since the start of last season (#6 overall).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 28 games at home (+11.65 Units / 32% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 13 of their last 18 away games (+9.70 Units / 42% ROI)
• Luis Campusano has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+9.70 Units / 59% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 5.12 vs Kansas City Royals 4.79

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