San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals Prediction For 7/25/2024

San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals Details

• Date: July 25, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dylan Cease - Padres
  • Patrick Corbin - Nationals

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

As the Washington Nationals prepare to host the San Diego Padres on July 25, 2024, at Nationals Park, the matchup is set to be an intriguing one. The Nationals, sitting at 47-55, are having a below-average season, while the Padres, with a 54-50 record, are performing above average. This game marks the third in the series between these two National League teams.

Washington will send left-hander Patrick Corbin to the mound. Corbin has struggled this season, holding a 2-9 win/loss record with a 5.35 ERA. Despite his high ERA, his 4.29 xFIP suggests he's been somewhat unlucky and could see better results moving forward. However, Corbin's low strikeout rate (16.4 K%) and the Padres' league-best ability to avoid strikeouts may pose a challenge for him.

On the flip side, the Padres will counter with right-hander Dylan Cease, who has been stellar this year. Cease boasts a 9-8 record and a solid 3.76 ERA, with an even more encouraging 3.15 xFIP indicating he, too, has been a bit unlucky. His high strikeout rate (32.5 K%) will be tested against a Nationals lineup that ranks 6th in least strikeouts in MLB.

Offensively, the Nationals rank 26th in overall performance, with particular struggles in power, ranking 29th in home runs. However, they excel in stolen bases, ranking 3rd. Meanwhile, the Padres' offense is more balanced, ranking 11th overall, 1st in team batting average, and 10th in home runs.

The bullpen battle also leans in favor of San Diego, which ranks 10th in the advanced-stat Power Rankings, compared to Washington's 29th ranking. This disparity could be crucial in the later innings of the game.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Padres a 63% chance of victory, compared to an implied win probability of 62%. The Nationals, projected at 37%, are slightly below their implied probability of 38%. Given these projections, the Padres appear to have a slight edge, bolstered by their stronger overall performance and the elite pitching of Dylan Cease.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Over his previous 3 starts, Dylan Cease has produced a sizeable rise in his fastball velocity: from 96.3 mph over the whole season to 97.3 mph of late.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Xander Bogaerts has been unlucky this year, posting a .267 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .328 — a .061 discrepancy.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

The San Diego Padres bullpen profiles as the 10th-best in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Patrick Corbin projects to strikeout 2.9 hitters in today's matchup, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Luis Garcia has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (63% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

CJ Abrams pulls many of his flyballs (33.8% — 80th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 23 of their last 38 games at home (+8.15 Units / 18% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 28 of their last 44 away games (+12.05 Units / 20% ROI)
• Kyle Higashioka has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+12.10 Units / 134% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 5.33 vs Washington Nationals 4.05

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