San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins Best Bet – 8/9/2024

San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins Details

• Date: August 9, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Martin Perez - Padres
  • Edward Cabrera - Marlins

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

As the Miami Marlins prepare to host the San Diego Padres on August 9, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the standings. The Marlins, languishing at 43-73, are experiencing a dismal season, while the Padres hold a respectable 64-52 record, marking them as strong contenders in the National League. This matchup marks the first game of the series, raising stakes for both teams as they vie for momentum.

The Marlins look to shake off their woes with Edward Cabrera on the mound. Despite ranking as the 73rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, Cabrera has had his challenges this season with a 2-3 record and a troubling 5.96 ERA. The projections suggest he will pitch an average of only 5.0 innings and allow 2.3 earned runs, which could spell trouble against a potent Padres offense that ranks 9th in the league.

Martin Perez, projected to start for San Diego, presents a different challenge. While he has also struggled with a 4.96 ERA and a 2-5 record, the Padres’ bullpen ranks 2nd overall, providing a strong safety net. Additionally, the Marlins’ offense ranks a dismal 29th in MLB—an indicator of their struggles to support their pitching staff.

With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs and the Marlins as underdogs with a +120 moneyline, they will need a standout performance from Cabrera and their best hitter, Jake Burger, who has recently shown form with 4 home runs over the past week. The odds favor the Padres, but with the right approach, the Marlins could challenge those expectations.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Martin Perez's 2039.3-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season ranks in the 12th percentile out of all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Xander Bogaerts has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 5.7% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the last week.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Kyle Higashioka (the Padres's expected catcher in today's matchup) is considered to be an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Tallying 13.2 outs per outing this year on average, Edward Cabrera places him the 3rd percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Jesus Sanchez's average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 93.3-mph now compared to just 90.3-mph then.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Miami Marlins bullpen ranks as the 6th-worst in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 36 games at home (+13.00 Units / 32% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 18 away games (+11.35 Units / 55% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 26 of his last 33 games (+19.55 Units / 52% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.51 vs Miami Marlins 4.36

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