San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Angels Pick & Prediction – 6/4/2024

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: June 4, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Adam Mazur - Padres
  • Patrick Sandoval - Angels

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

On June 4, 2024, the Los Angeles Angels will face off against the San Diego Padres at Angel Stadium. The Angels, who are having a terrible season with a record of 22-38, will be looking to turn things around in this Interleague matchup. The Padres, with a record of 32-31, are having an average season and will aim to continue their solid performance.

The Angels will send left-handed pitcher Patrick Sandoval to the mound, while the Padres will counter with right-handed pitcher Adam Mazur. Sandoval, ranked as the #46 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, has started 12 games this year. Although his Win/Loss record is 2-8 and his ERA stands at 5.34, his 3.85 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward. Sandoval is projected to pitch around 5.5 innings, allowing an average of 2.7 earned runs, striking out 4.7 batters, and giving up 5.6 hits and 2.3 walks.

Mazur, on the other hand, is considered a below-average pitcher. He is projected to pitch around 5.0 innings, allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs, striking out 4.1 batters, and giving up 5.2 hits and 1.1 walks. Based on these projections, both pitchers are expected to deliver average performances.

In their last game, the Angels played the Padres and emerged victorious with a score of 2-1. Despite being underdogs with a closing Moneyline price of +130 and an implied win probability of 42%, the Angels managed to secure the win. The Padres, who were favorites with a closing Moneyline price of -150 and an implied win probability of 58%, fell short in the matchup.

The Angels offense ranks as the #17 best in MLB this season, showcasing average talent. They excel in team home runs, ranking #3 in the league, but struggle in stolen bases, ranking #27. On the other hand, the Padres offense is considered good, ranking #8 in MLB. They perform well in team home runs, ranking #10, and stolen bases, ranking #7.

When it comes to the bullpens, the Angels rank as the worst in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Padres rank as the 6th best. This suggests that the Padres may have an advantage in the later innings of the game.

The Angels' best hitter this season has been Taylor Ward, who has recorded 30 runs, 34 RBIs, and 11 home runs with a batting average of .261 and an OPS of .787. In their last seven games, Kevin Pillar has been the standout hitter for the Angels, recording 6 hits, 1 home run, and a batting average of .316 with an OPS of .907.

The Padres' best hitter this season has been Jurickson Profar, who has recorded 34 runs, 38 RBIs, and 8 home runs with a batting average of .327 and an OPS of .917. Over the last seven games, Profar has continued his impressive performance with 9 hits, 6 RBIs, 1 home run, a batting average of .429, and an OPS of 1.119.

In terms of betting odds, both teams are evenly matched with a moneyline set at -110 for each. This indicates a 50% implied win probability for both teams, making it a close game according to the betting markets. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects a win probability of 48% for the Angels and 52% for the Padres, further emphasizing the close nature of the matchup.

Based on the current odds, the Angels have an average implied team total of 4.25 runs, while the Padres also have an average implied team total of 4.25 runs. THE BAT X projects the Angels to score an average of 4.45 runs in this game, while the Padres are projected to score an average of 4.88 runs.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

The San Diego Padres infield defense projects as the 2nd-best among every team in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

This year, there has been a decline in Luis Campusano's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 25.75 ft/sec last year to 24.95 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

In today's matchup, Ha-seong Kim is at a disadvantage facing the league's 10th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 34.9% rate (86th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Patrick Sandoval has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 7.0 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than league average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

San Diego's #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Mickey Moniak, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Los Angeles Angels have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Mickey Moniak, Jo Adell, Kyren Paris).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 33 of their last 58 games (+7.20 Units / 11% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 14 of their last 19 away games (+10.70 Units / 43% ROI)
• Logan O'Hoppe has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games at home (+15.20 Units / 190% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.94 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.42

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