San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: June 3, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Matt Waldron - Padres
  • Tyler Anderson - Angels

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

On June 3, 2024, the Los Angeles Angels will take on the San Diego Padres in an interleague matchup at Angel Stadium. The Angels, who are having a terrible season with a record of 21-38, will be the home team, while the Padres, with a record of 32-30, are having an above-average season and will be the away team.

The Angels are projected to start left-handed pitcher Tyler Anderson, who has a win-loss record of 5-5 with an excellent ERA of 2.47 this season. However, his 4.98 xFIP suggests that he has been lucky and may perform worse going forward. On the other hand, the Padres are projected to start right-handed pitcher Matt Waldron, who has a win-loss record of 3-5 with an average ERA of 4.26. However, his peripheral indicators, such as a lower SIERA, xERA, and FIP than his ERA, suggest that he has been unlucky and may perform better in future games.

The Angels offense ranks as the 15th best in MLB this season, with an average team batting average of 12th and a great ranking of 3rd in team home runs. However, they have a very bad ranking of 27th in team stolen bases. On the other hand, the Padres offense ranks as the 8th best in MLB, with a bad ranking of 20th in team batting average but good rankings of 10th in team home runs and 7th in team stolen bases.

In terms of pitching, the Angels bullpen is considered the worst in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Padres bullpen is ranked 8th best. This may give the Padres an advantage late in the game.

According to betting markets, the Padres are favored to win with an implied win probability of 55%, while the Angels have a 45% chance of winning. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating an average expectation of scoring.

Both teams have their strengths and weaknesses, with the Angels relying on their power hitting to score runs and the Padres having a patient offense that draws walks. Tyler Anderson's high walk rate may give the Padres an advantage, while Matt Waldron's tendency to give up fly balls could play into the Angels' power-hitting lineup.

Overall, this game is expected to be a close match-up, with both teams having the potential to capitalize on their opponent's weaknesses. Baseball fans and bettors alike can look forward to an exciting game between the Angels and the Padres.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Matt Waldron projects for an average of 1.3 walks in today's game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Jake Cronenworth is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 98% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Ha-seong Kim pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35% — 86th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 10th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Because of his large reverse platoon split, Tyler Anderson will be at an advantage squaring off against 7 batters in the projected offense who bat from the opposite side in today's matchup.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Willie Calhoun's speed has fallen off this year. His 24.98 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.45 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Los Angeles Angels have been the 7th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in future games

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+6.40 Units / 29% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 14 of their last 18 away games (+11.70 Units / 49% ROI)
• Zach Neto has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 40 games (+10.10 Units / 17% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 5.13 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.4

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