San Diego Padres at Kansas City Royals Pick For 5/31/2024

San Diego Padres

San Diego Padres

May 31, 2024

Kansas City Royals

Kansas City Royals
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 31, 2024
  • Venue: Kauffman Stadium
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Dylan Cease - Padres
    • Michael Wacha - Royals

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Padres -130, Royals 110
Runline: Padres -1.5 130, Royals 1.5 -150
Over/Under Total: 8 -110

San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
San Diego Padres - 54% San Diego Padres - 55.96%
Kansas City Royals - 46% Kansas City Royals - 44.04%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

On May 31, 2024, the Kansas City Royals will face off against the San Diego Padres at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals will be the home team for this Interleague matchup. Let's take a closer look at the teams and the projected starting pitchers.

The Kansas City Royals have been having a great season so far, with a record of 35-23. They are currently ranked 8th in MLB in terms of offensive performance, showcasing their talent at the plate. However, their team batting average ranks 19th, indicating room for improvement in that area. Despite their average ranking in home runs, the Royals excel in stolen bases, ranking 4th in the league.

The San Diego Padres, with a record of 30-29, are having an average season. Their offense ranks 10th in MLB, displaying their overall talent. However, their team batting average is only 20th in the league, highlighting an area where they can improve. The Padres have been successful in hitting home runs, ranking 10th, and stealing bases, ranking 7th.

The Royals are projected to start right-handed pitcher Michael Wacha, who has a record of 4-5 this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Wacha is considered below average, ranking 126th out of approximately 350 pitchers. He has started 11 games this year, with an ERA of 4.31.

The Padres will counter with right-handed pitcher Dylan Cease, who has a record of 5-4 this season. Cease has been outstanding, ranking 18th in our Power Rankings. He has started 11 games with an impressive ERA of 3.29.

Based on the current odds, the Padres have an implied win probability of 54%, making them the favorites. However, the Royals have been known to defy expectations, and with home-field advantage, they have a chance to secure a victory.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Dylan Cease's 96.1-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a significant 1.2-mph rise from last year's 94.9-mph figure.

  • Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Luis Arraez's 3.5% Barrel% (an advanced stat to evaluate power) is in the 10th percentile since the start of last season.

  • Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Luis Campusano (the Padres's expected catcher in today's matchup) profiles as a horrible pitch framer.

  • Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Michael Wacha projects to strikeout 3.6 batters in this outing, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Salvador Perez's quickness has increased this year. His 24.24 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.69 ft/sec now.

  • Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

The Kansas City Royals bullpen projects as the 6th-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

  • Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 38 of their last 57 games (+16.29 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 20 of their last 27 away games (+15.35 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the RBIs Over in 19 of his last 35 games (+11.65 Units / 33% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 5.12 vs Kansas City Royals 4.25

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-134
57% SD
+113
43% KC

Total Pick Consensus

8.0/-105
2% UN
8.0/-115
98% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/+124
71% SD
+1.5/-148
29% KC

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
SD
Team Stats
KC
3.83
ERA
5.20
.237
Batting Avg Against
.260
1.28
WHIP
1.41
.289
BABIP
.304
9.0%
BB%
9.1%
23.5%
K%
20.4%
75.4%
LOB%
67.1%
.240
Batting Avg
.244
.413
SLG
.394
.739
OPS
.695
.327
OBP
.301
SD
Team Records
KC
26-27
Home
31-18
24-21
Road
21-26
35-32
vRHP
43-36
15-16
vLHP
9-8
26-28
vs>.500
23-25
24-20
vs<.500
29-19
4-6
Last10
5-5
12-8
Last20
10-10
16-14
Last30
13-17
D. Cease
M. Wacha
N/A
Innings
N/A
N/A
GS
N/A
N/A
W-L
N/A
N/A
ERA
N/A
N/A
K/9
N/A
N/A
BB/9
N/A
N/A
HR/9
N/A
N/A
LOB%
N/A
N/A
HR/FB%
N/A
N/A
FIP
N/A
N/A
xFIP
N/A

D. Cease

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/2 LAA
Sandoval N/A
W3-0 N/A
7
1
0
0
11
0
64-93
4/27 KC
Greinke N/A
W7-3 N/A
6
3
2
2
9
3
65-99
4/15 TB
Rasmussen N/A
W3-2 N/A
5.2
3
1
1
8
2
63-91
4/9 DET
Mize N/A
W5-2 N/A
5
2
1
1
8
3
46-79
10/10 HOU
Garcia N/A
W12-6 N/A
1.2
2
3
3
2
3
20-44

M. Wacha

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/3 LAA
Syndergaard N/A
W4-0 N/A
5.2
3
0
0
2
2
42-60
4/27 TOR
Stripling N/A
W7-1 N/A
6
4
1
1
5
2
57-92
4/22 TB
Kluber N/A
W4-3 N/A
5
3
2
2
3
2
50-82
4/17 MIN
Ober N/A
W8-1 N/A
5
1
0
0
5
2
52-79
4/11 DET
Manning N/A
L1-3 N/A
4.1
2
1
1
4
3
45-72

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
SD KC
SD KC
Consensus
-132
+114
-134
+113
-130
+110
-135
+114
-134
+114
-136
+116
-132
+112
-129
+110
-135
+115
-135
+115
-135
+110
-140
+115
Open
Current
Book
SD KC
SD KC
Consensus
-1.5 (+128)
+1.5 (-151)
-1.5 (+127)
+1.5 (-153)
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+124)
+1.5 (-148)
-1.5 (+126)
+1.5 (-152)
-1.5 (+122)
+1.5 (-146)
-1.5 (+128)
+1.5 (-159)
-1.5 (+133)
+1.5 (-162)
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+122)
+1.5 (-145)
-1.5 (+125)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+125)
+1.5 (-155)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.0 (-120)
8.0 (+100)
8.0 (-101)
8.0 (-120)
8.0 (-120)
8.0 (+100)
8.0 (-102)
8.0 (-118)
8.5 (+100)
8.5 (-122)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
8.5 (-103)
8.5 (-120)
8.0 (-103)
8.0 (-118)
8.0 (-125)
8.0 (+105)
8.0 (+110)
8.0 (-130)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
7.5 (-125)
7.5 (-105)