San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds Pick For 5/23/2024

San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 23, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Matt Waldron - Padres
  • Frankie Montas - Reds

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

On May 23, 2024, the Cincinnati Reds will face off against the San Diego Padres at Great American Ball Park. This National League matchup will feature the Reds as the home team. The Reds, with a season record of 20-29, are having a difficult season, while the Padres hold a record of 26-26, indicating an average performance so far.

The Reds are projected to start Frankie Montas, a right-handed pitcher who has started eight games this year. Montas holds a win-loss record of 2-3 with an ERA of 4.37, which is considered average. However, his 5.11 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky this season and could perform worse in the future.

On the other side, the Padres are projected to start Matt Waldron, another right-handed pitcher. Waldron has started nine games this season, with a win-loss record of 2-5 and an ERA of 5.00, below average. However, his 4.15 xFIP indicates that he may have been unlucky and could perform better going forward.

In terms of offensive rankings, the Reds currently rank 28th in MLB, while the Padres rank 9th. The Reds have a strong stolen base game, ranking first in MLB, but their overall offensive performance has been lacking. The Padres, on the other hand, have shown a good offensive performance, ranking 10th in home runs and 7th in stolen bases.

Based on the current odds, both teams have an equal implied win probability of 50%. However, the Reds have a slightly higher implied team total of 4.75 runs compared to the Padres' 4.75 runs.

Taking into account the projected performances of Montas and Waldron, as well as the offensive and bullpen rankings, the Padres may have a slight advantage in this close game. However, the outcome could still go either way.

It will be interesting to see how these two teams match up in this National League showdown. Be sure to tune in on May 23, 2024, to catch all the action at Great American Ball Park.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

With 6 hitters of the opposite hand in the opposing team's projected offense, Matt Waldron encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jurickson Profar's true offensive skill to be a .312, providing some evidence that he has been lucky this year given the .093 difference between that figure and his actual .405 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Kyle Higashioka pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.5% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Frankie Montas’s fastball velocity over his last 3 starts (95.2 mph) has been significantly faster than than his seasonal rate (94.2 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Jonathan India is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 74% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Cincinnati Reds have been the unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in future games

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games at home (+7.80 Units / 54% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 7 of their last 9 away games (+5.60 Units / 45% ROI)
• Nick Martini has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+7.75 Units / 55% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 5.15 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.58

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