Sonny Gray projections, stats and prop bet odds for St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves on Jul 20, 2024

Sonny Gray Player Prop Bet: Strikeouts

Strikeouts Prop Bet Odds:

  • Strikeouts 5.5 over: -148
  • Strikeouts 5.5 under: 116

Trends Favoring The Over Strikeouts Prop Bet

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Sonny Gray in the 91st percentile when it comes to his strikeout ability.

Among all starters, Sonny Gray's fastball spin rate of 2545 rpm ranks in the 96th percentile this year.

Sonny Gray's high utilization percentage of his secondary pitches (58.7% this year) figures to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

Sonny Gray has put up a 29% Strikeout% this year, checking in at the 93rd percentile.

Trends Favoring The Under Strikeouts Prop Bet

Willson Contreras, the Cardinals's expected catcher today, projects as a weak pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest altitude among all stadiums. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.

Playing on the road generally diminishes pitcher metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Sonny Gray in today's matchup.

Over his previous 3 outings, Sonny Gray has suffered a big decline in his fastball spin rate: from 2545 rpm over the entire season to 2483 rpm of late.

Given the 1.13 difference between Sonny Gray's 10.93 K/9 and his 9.80 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in baseball this year as it relates to strikeouts and ought to see worse results the rest of the season.

Projection For Today's Sonny Gray Strikeouts Prop Bet

Sonny Gray is projected to have 6.1 Strikeouts in todays game.