Pittsburgh Pirates vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction, Odds & Picks – 6/2/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates

Jun 2, 2024

Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: June 2, 2024
  • Venue: Rogers Centre
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Quinn Priester - Pirates
    • Chris Bassitt - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Pirates 140, Blue Jays -165
Runline: Pirates 1.5 -145, Blue Jays -1.5 125
Over/Under Total: 8 -120

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Pittsburgh Pirates - 40% Pittsburgh Pirates - 38.86%
Toronto Blue Jays - 60% Toronto Blue Jays - 61.14%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

In an Interleague matchup on June 2, 2024, the Toronto Blue Jays will take on the Pittsburgh Pirates at Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays will be the home team for this game, and both teams are having below-average seasons so far.

The Blue Jays currently hold a 27-30 record, while the Pirates are 27-31. Despite their struggles, the Blue Jays have the advantage of playing on their home turf. They are projected to start right-handed pitcher Chris Bassitt, who is considered above average according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Bassitt has a win-loss record of 5-6 this season, with an ERA of 4.03.

On the other side, the Pirates are projected to start right-handed pitcher Quinn Priester, who is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to our Power Rankings. Priester has a win-loss record of 0-4 and an ERA of 4.33. However, it's worth noting that his peripheral indicators suggest he has been lucky this year and may perform worse going forward.

This game is the third in the series between these two teams, with the Blue Jays having won the previous two games.

The Blue Jays offense ranks as the 18th best in MLB this season, with an average team batting average and home run ranking. However, they have a strong hitter in George Springer, who has been performing well in the past week.

The Pirates offense, on the other hand, ranks as the 28th best in MLB, with a low team batting average and home run ranking. Their best hitter over the past week has been Connor Joe.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Blue Jays are the favorites to win this game with a projected win probability of 60%. The Pirates, on the other hand, are considered underdogs with a projected win probability of 40%.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Considering that groundball batters have a sizeable edge over flyball pitchers, Quinn Priester and his 52.2% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a tough spot in today's game matching up with 1 opposing GB hitters.

  • This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Nick Gonzales is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

  • The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Rowdy Tellez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

  • This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Chris Bassitt has utilized his four-seam fastball 5.1% less often this season (4.2%) than he did last season (9.3%).

  • Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Daniel Vogelbach's speed has increased this season. His 23.64 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.25 ft/sec now.

  • Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

As a team, Toronto Blue Jays bats have shined as far as hitting balls in the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (between 23° and 34°), ranking 7th-best in the majors.

  • Balls that are hit too low can't clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don't go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Game Trends

  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 47 games (+8.00 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 52 games (+9.60 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Daulton Varsho has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.10 Units / 29% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.76 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.51

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+151
16% PIT
-178
84% TOR

Total Pick Consensus

8.0/-108
8% UN
8.0/-112
92% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-142
2% PIT
-1.5/+120
98% TOR

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
PIT
Team Stats
TOR
4.60
ERA
3.68
.252
Batting Avg Against
.238
1.40
WHIP
1.24
.304
BABIP
.294
9.4%
BB%
8.0%
21.9%
K%
25.1%
70.4%
LOB%
76.4%
.235
Batting Avg
.260
.388
SLG
.415
.700
OPS
.746
.313
OBP
.331
PIT
Team Records
TOR
24-25
Home
22-26
26-24
Road
23-28
34-33
vRHP
38-43
16-16
vLHP
7-11
23-28
vs>.500
31-43
27-21
vs<.500
14-11
8-2
Last10
5-5
12-8
Last20
9-11
17-13
Last30
12-18
Q. Priester
C. Bassitt
28.2
Innings
145.2
6
GS
25
2-2
W-L
11-6
9.10
ERA
3.95
7.22
K/9
8.46
5.65
BB/9
2.97
2.20
HR/9
1.36
58.4%
LOB%
74.9%
26.9%
HR/FB%
13.8%
6.83
FIP
4.57
5.14
xFIP
4.40
.306
AVG
.237
16.4%
K%
22.3%
12.9%
BB%
7.8%
5.54
SIERA
4.35

Q. Priester

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

C. Bassitt

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/2 ATL
Fried N/A
L2-5 N/A
7
6
3
3
8
1
64-95
4/26 STL
Hicks N/A
W3-0 N/A
6
2
0
0
6
3
55-94
4/20 SF
Rodon N/A
L2-5 N/A
6
8
5
5
6
1
62-97
4/15 ARI
Davies N/A
W10-3 N/A
6
2
1
1
6
2
64-98
4/9 WSH
Adon N/A
W5-0 N/A
6
3
0
0
8
1
66-93

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
PIT TOR
PIT TOR
Consensus
+128
-150
+151
-178
+142
-170
+150
-180
+128
-152
+150
-178
+130
-152
+150
-180
+140
-165
+150
-178
+140
-165
+145
-175
Open
Current
Book
PIT TOR
PIT TOR
Consensus
+1.5 (-142)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-142)
-1.5 (+117)
+1.5 (-142)
-1.5 (+120)
+1.5 (-142)
-1.5 (+120)
+1.5 (-142)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-142)
-1.5 (+118)
+1.5 (-148)
-1.5 (+138)
+1.5 (-148)
-1.5 (+120)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+115)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+120)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+110)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.5 (+103)
8.5 (-125)
8.0 (-114)
8.0 (-107)
8.5 (-102)
8.5 (-118)
8.0 (-112)
8.0 (-108)
8.5 (+102)
8.5 (-124)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.5 (-103)
8.5 (-120)
8.0 (-114)
8.0 (-107)
8.0 (-120)
8.0 (+100)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-120)
8.0 (+100)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)