Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins Pick – 3/28/2025

• Date: March 28, 2025
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitch Keller - Pirates
  • Connor Gillispie - Marlins

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins will host the Pittsburgh Pirates on March 28, 2025, in what is shaping up to be a pivotal matchup early in the season. The Marlins currently sit at 1-0, riding the momentum of a strong start, while the Pirates are looking to bounce back from a disappointing 0-1 record. This game marks the second in their series, with both teams eager to establish their identities for the season ahead.

Projected starting pitchers Connor Gillispie for the Marlins and Mitch Keller for the Pirates bring contrasting expectations to the mound. Gillispie, ranked as the 418th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, has a tough task ahead. He projects to pitch just 4.2 innings, allowing an average of 2.4 earned runs, 3.6 strikeouts, and a concerning 4.2 hits. His performance could be a significant factor, especially given that the Marlins are implied to score only 3.49 runs, a low total that highlights their underdog status with a moneyline of +120.

On the other hand, Keller is not without his struggles, but he projects slightly better with an average of 5.3 innings pitched and 2.5 earned runs allowed. His ability to strike out 5.3 batters could play a crucial role in keeping the Pirates competitive. With an implied team total of 4.01 runs, the Pirates are favored with a moneyline of -140.

Despite the odds, the Marlins are coming off a strong performance and have a chance to capitalize on the Pirates' early-season woes. As both teams look to find their footing, this matchup could prove to be a turning point for one of them.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Mitch Keller in the 75th percentile when estimating his strikeout ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Oneil Cruz has a good chance to have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xavier Edwards as the 19th-best batter in the game as it relates to his batting average talent.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

The Miami Marlins bullpen ranks as the worst in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 46 of their last 70 games at home (+26.35 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 75 away games (+6.30 Units / 8% ROI)

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