Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction – 5/27/2025

On May 27, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks will face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Chase Field in what marks the second game of their series. The Diamondbacks currently sit at an average 27-27 record, while the Pirates are struggling mightily with a 19-36 record this season. Last night, the Diamondbacks continued their solid play, securing a convincing victory over the Pirates.

Today's matchup showcases two right-handed pitchers: Corbin Burnes for the Diamondbacks and Michael Burrows for the Pirates. Burnes, who is projected to pitch 5.8 innings today, has been effective this season, sporting a 2.73 ERA and ranked as the 32nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. In contrast, Burrows is viewed as one of the weaker pitchers, with a troubling 7.20 ERA and only one start under his belt this year.

The Diamondbacks' offense ranks 4th best in MLB, boasting a strong 5.16 implied team total for today’s game. They have shown consistent power, ranking 5th in home runs, and are facing a Pirates team that ranks 29th in offensive production and home runs. This disparity positions Arizona favorably as they exploit Burrows' high walk rate against a D-Backs lineup that excels in drawing walks.

While the Game Total sits at a reasonable 8.5 runs, the Diamondbacks are favored heavily with a moneyline of -250. Given the Pirates' current struggles and Burnes' impressive form, bettors may find the Diamondbacks an enticing option as they look to build on their recent success against a team in dire need of a turnaround.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Mike Burrows is an extreme flyball pitcher (37% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #29 HR venue among all major league parks today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Typically, bats like Isiah Kiner-Falefa who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Corbin Burnes.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Oneil Cruz, Joey Bart, Alexander Canario).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Corbin Burnes has gone to his cutter 8.6% more often this season (53.6%) than he did last season (45%).

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Pavin Smith is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Arizona's 90.1-mph average exit velocity this year is among the best in baseball: #6 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 33 games (+13.45 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 44 games (+11.50 Units / 24% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.01, Arizona Diamondbacks 5.19

• Date: May 27, 2025
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael Burrows - Pirates
  • Corbin Burnes - D-Backs

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