Pittsburgh Pirates at Toronto Blue Jays Best Bet – 6/1/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: June 1, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitch Keller - Pirates
  • Yusei Kikuchi - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Moneyline:	Pirates 140, Blue Jays -160
Runline:	Pirates 1.5 -155, Blue Jays -1.5 135
Over/Under Total:	8 -110

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:	Projected Win %:
Pittsburgh Pirates - 40%	Pittsburgh Pirates - 40.75%
Toronto Blue Jays - 60%	Toronto Blue Jays - 59.25%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

On June 1, 2024, the Toronto Blue Jays are set to host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Rogers Centre. This Interleague matchup brings together two teams having below-average seasons. The Blue Jays currently hold a record of 27-29, while the Pirates are slightly behind with a record of 26-31.

The Blue Jays are projected to start Yusei Kikuchi, a left-handed pitcher, while the Pirates will counter with right-handed pitcher Mitch Keller. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Kikuchi is considered an average starting pitcher, ranking 99th out of approximately 350 pitchers. In contrast, Keller is seen as a below-average pitcher.

Kikuchi has started 11 games this season, with a win/loss record of 2-4 and an impressive ERA of 3.25. On average, he is projected to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, striking out 6.4 batters, but also giving up 4.6 hits and 2.0 walks. Keller, on the other hand, has started 11 games as well, with a win/loss record of 6-3 and an ERA of 3.59. However, his xERA suggests that he has been lucky this year and may perform worse going forward.

In terms of offense, the Blue Jays rank 13th best in MLB this season, with a solid team batting average ranking of 5th. However, their ranking in team home runs (15th) and stolen bases (19th) is more average. The Pirates' offense has struggled, ranking 27th overall, with poor rankings in team batting average (26th) and home runs (23rd), but an average ranking in stolen bases (12th).

Both teams have average bullpens, with the Blue Jays ranking 14th and the Pirates ranking 12th in our advanced-stat Power Rankings. However, it's worth noting that these rankings are estimates of underlying talent, regardless of year-to-date performance.

In terms of betting odds, the Blue Jays are the favorites with a moneyline of -160, giving them an implied win probability of 60%. The Pirates are considered underdogs with a moneyline of +140 and an implied win probability of 40%. Based on the current odds, the Blue Jays have a high implied team total of 4.42 runs, while the Pirates have a lower implied team total of 3.58 runs.

Overall, this matchup showcases two teams trying to find their footing in the season. The Blue Jays have the advantage with a better record and a more solid offense. However, the Pirates have a pitcher in Keller who has performed well despite his peripheral indicators suggesting potential regression. It will be interesting to see how these factors play out on the field.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Mitch Keller has gone to his secondary offerings 6.8% less often this year (44.4%) than he did last year (51.2%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Ke'Bryan Hayes's footspeed has declined this season. His 27.11 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 26.4 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Nick Gonzales, Michael A. Taylor, Grant Koch).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Out of all the teams today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the Toronto Blue Jays.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Kevin Kiermaier is an extreme groundball hitter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Pittsburgh (#3-best of all teams today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Toronto Blue Jays bats collectively rank among the worst in the league since the start of last season ( 8th-worst) when it comes to their 88.6-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 47 games (+8.00 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+9.60 Units / 41% ROI)
• Davis Schneider has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+7.30 Units / 91% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.88 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.47

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