Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco Giants Prediction For 4/28/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates

Apr 28, 2024

San Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants Betting Pick & Prediction & Preview

  • Date: April 28, 2024
  • Venue: Oracle Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Jared Jones - Pirates
    • Keaton Winn - Giants
  • Run Line: Pirates 1.5 -225, Giants -1.5 190
  • Money Line: Pirates -110, Giants -110
  • Total (Over/Under): 7.5

Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

  • Pittsburgh Pirates - 50%
  • San Francisco Giants - 50%

Projected Win %:

  • Pittsburgh Pirates - 41.62%
  • San Francisco Giants - 58.38%

Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants Game Preview & Prediction

In a highly anticipated National League matchup, the San Francisco Giants, with a current record of 13-15, are set to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates, who hold a record of 14-14 this season. The game is scheduled to be played on April 28, 2024, at Oracle Park, with the Giants serving as the home team.

The Giants are having a below-average season, ranking 16th in MLB in terms of overall performance. Their offense, ranked 21st in team batting average and 19th in home runs, has struggled to produce consistent results. However, their bullpen has been a standout, ranking as the second-best in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings.

On the other hand, the Pirates are having an average season, ranking 21st in MLB. Their offense has struggled as well, ranking 26th in team batting average and 23rd in home runs. However, their bullpen has also been impressive, ranking as the fourth-best in MLB.

Taking the mound for the Giants is right-handed pitcher Keaton Winn, who has started five games this year and holds a win/loss record of 2-3. Despite his 3.54 ERA, which is considered good, his 4.39 xERA suggests that he may have been lucky this season and could perform worse going forward.

Opposing Winn is right-handed pitcher Jared Jones of the Pirates. Jones has also started five games this year and boasts an impressive 2.79 ERA. However, his 2.21 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and could perform even better in the future.

In terms of offensive performance, the Giants rank 29th in stolen bases, while the Pirates rank 12th in the same category. The Giants' best hitter this season has been Mike Yastrzemski, while the Pirates' standout performer has been Oneil Cruz.

According to the current odds, the Giants are favored to win with a moneyline of -115, implying a 51% win probability. The Pirates, with a moneyline of -105, have a 49% win probability. This indicates that the game is expected to be closely contested.

With the Giants' bullpen strength and the Pirates' offensive struggles, the matchup favors the Giants. However, with Jones' impressive performance and the Giants' below-average offensive rankings, the outcome of the game remains uncertain.

Overall, this game promises an exciting clash between two National League teams with different strengths and weaknesses. Fans and bettors alike will be eagerly watching to see how the Giants and Pirates perform on the field.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Andrew McCutchen has been hot recently, cracking 2 long-balls in the last week.

  • Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Out of all starting pitchers, Keaton Winn's fastball velocity of 95.3 mph grades out in the 91st percentile since the start of last season.

  • Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jung Hoo Lee as the 8th-best batter in the league when it comes to his batting average talent.

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants' bullpen ranks as the 2nd-best out of all teams in the majors.

  • Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

  • The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 79 of their last 127 games (+25.97 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 50 of their last 83 games (+13.75 Units / 15% ROI)

Pirates vs Giants Prediction: Pirates 3.86 - Giants 4.36

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-109
25% PIT
-110
75% SF

Total Pick Consensus

7.5/-105
25% UN
7.5/-115
75% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/+160
49% PIT
+1.5/-192
51% SF

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
PIT
Team Stats
SF
4.60
ERA
3.89
.252
Batting Avg Against
.247
1.40
WHIP
1.24
.304
BABIP
.302
9.4%
BB%
6.8%
21.9%
K%
23.1%
70.4%
LOB%
72.1%
.235
Batting Avg
.238
.388
SLG
.389
.700
OPS
.703
.313
OBP
.314
PIT
Team Records
SF
19-19
Home
20-17
18-20
Road
16-24
24-26
vRHP
28-26
13-13
vLHP
8-15
14-15
vs>.500
8-20
23-24
vs<.500
28-21
5-5
Last10
3-7
11-9
Last20
7-13
16-14
Last30
14-16
J. Jones
K. Winn
N/A
Innings
22.0
N/A
GS
2
N/A
W-L
0-2
N/A
ERA
4.09
N/A
K/9
5.73
N/A
BB/9
2.05
N/A
HR/9
1.23
N/A
LOB%
74.6%
N/A
HR/FB%
17.6%
N/A
FIP
5.00
N/A
xFIP
4.49

J. Jones

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

K. Winn

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
PIT SF
PIT SF
Consensus
+100
-120
-109
-110
-105
-115
-112
-108
+102
-120
-106
-110
-104
-114
-109
-108
-105
-115
-105
-115
-110
-110
-110
-110
+125
-150
-110
-110
Open
Current
Book
PIT SF
PIT SF
Consensus
-1.5 (+166)
+1.5 (-209)
-1.5 (+159)
+1.5 (-198)
-1.5 (+164)
+1.5 (-198)
-1.5 (+160)
+1.5 (-192)
-1.5 (+172)
+1.5 (-210)
-1.5 (+158)
+1.5 (-192)
-1.5 (+163)
+1.5 (-215)
-1.5 (+160)
+1.5 (-200)
+1.5 (158)
-1.5 (+185)
-1.5 (+158)
+1.5 (-190)
+1.5 (165)
-1.5 (+185)
-1.5 (+165)
+1.5 (-200)
+1.5 (165)
-1.5 (+135)
-1.5 (+165)
+1.5 (-200)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (-118)
7.5 (+102)
7.5 (-126)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (-115)
7.0 (-115)
7.0 (-105)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-122)
7.5 (+102)
7.5 (-124)
7.5 (-104)
7.5 (-117)
7.5 (+102)
7.5 (-125)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-120)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
7.0 (-120)
7.0 (+100)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (-115)
7.0 (-115)
7.0 (-105)