Pittsburgh Pirates at Houston Astros Best Bet – 7/31/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Houston Astros Details

• Date: July 31, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jake Woodford - Pirates
  • Framber Valdez - Astros

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

On July 31, 2024, the Houston Astros will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Minute Maid Park in what promises to be an intriguing Interleague matchup. Both teams are having respectable seasons, with the Astros sporting a 55-51 record and the Pirates close behind at 54-52. Tight as it is, this game could have broader implications for playoff positioning, especially for teams seeking to solidify their status in the postseason race.

The Astros hold a slight edge with their offense ranking 2nd in MLB in team batting average and 9th in team home runs. These impressive stats highlight the underlying talent within their lineup. The Pirates, however, have struggled offensively, ranking 26th in batting average and 23rd in both home runs and stolen bases.

On the mound, Houston will rely on left-hander Framber Valdez, a solid arm in their rotation. Valdez, known for his ability to induce ground balls and limit home runs, will face off against Pittsburgh's Luis Ortiz, a right-handed pitcher. Ortiz will have his hands full against a potent Astros lineup.

The Astros' best hitter over the last seven games has been Victor Caratini, who has played in four games and posted a scorching .500 batting average with a 1.383 OPS. He also notched five hits and a home run during this period, reinforcing his importance to Houston's offense. On the Pirates' side, Michael A. Taylor has been their standout performer over the last week, playing five games with a .364 batting average and a 1.227 OPS. Taylor has also contributed four RBIs and a home run, showcasing his all-around abilities.

As both teams gear up for the third game in the series, the Astros' higher-ranked offense and home-field advantage tilt the scales slightly in their favor. However, the Pirates, led by a hot-hitting Michael A. Taylor, will not be pushovers. Expect a closely contested game with potential playoff ramifications.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Jake Woodford has been given a below-average leash this year, throwing 5.9 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Connor Joe's average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 88.9-mph EV last season has fallen off to 85.2-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Pittsburgh Pirates bats as a unit place 9th- in the majors for power this year when using their 8.5% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

This year, Framber Valdez has introduced a new pitch to his arsenal (a slider), throwing it on 5.3% of his pitches.

• Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.355) may lead us to conclude that Jake Meyers has had some very poor luck this year with his .309 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Jose Altuve pulls a lot of his flyballs (42% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 32 of their last 52 games (+13.20 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 18 games (+9.55 Units / 46% ROI)
• Alex Bregman has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 48 games (+8.30 Units / 14% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.45 vs Houston Astros 4.95

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