Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins Betting Pick & Preview – 7/23/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins Details

• Date: July 23, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zack Wheeler - Phillies
  • Simeon Woods Richardson - Twins

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

Fans at Target Field are in for a treat on July 23, 2024, as the Minnesota Twins host the Philadelphia Phillies in an intriguing interleague matchup. The Phillies have been on a roll this season with a 63-37 record, bolstered by their elite offense and top-tier pitching. Meanwhile, the Twins have had a solid season as well, sitting at 55-44 and looking to make a statement in this series.

The Phillies come in as favorites with a moneyline of -155, translating to an implied win probability of 59%. This is supported by their strong showing so far and an impressive performance by their ace, Zack Wheeler. Wheeler, who holds an excellent 2.70 ERA, is ranked as the 9th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Although his 3.47 xFIP suggests he's had some luck on his side, his consistency can't be denied. Wheeler is projected to pitch 5.1 innings, allow 2.2 earned runs, and strike out 6.0 batters on average today, which is solid across the board.

On the other side, the Twins will counter with Simeon Woods Richardson, who, despite a respectable 3.51 ERA, is ranked 141st among starting pitchers. His 4.30 xFIP indicates he's been somewhat fortunate this season. Woods Richardson is projected to pitch 4.9 innings, allow 2.7 earned runs, and strike out 4.3 batters, which is below average.

The Phillies' offensive prowess is another key factor. Ranked as the 3rd best offense in MLB, they lead in team batting average and are 6th in home runs. Their power could exploit Woods Richardson's high flyball rate, potentially turning those flyballs into home runs. The Twins' offense, while strong themselves and ranked 5th, will have a tough task against Wheeler and a Phillies bullpen ranked 3rd in MLB.

Given the Twins' underdog status with a moneyline of +135 and an implied win probability of 41%, they will need to capitalize on every opportunity. Their bullpen, ranked 5th, could play a pivotal role in keeping the game close.

With both teams vying for playoff positioning, this game is crucial. The Phillies aim to extend their dominance, while the Twins look to pull off an upset at home. It promises to be a tightly contested game, with every pitch and swing carrying significant weight.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Zack Wheeler's 2424-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 84th percentile out of all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Alec Bohm has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 8.2% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% over the past two weeks.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The 3rd-best projected lineup of the day in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Simeon Woods Richardson has been given a below-average leash this year, throwing 6.4 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Max Kepler's average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 88.9-mph seasonal average has decreased to 81.5-mph in the last two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Minnesota Twins bullpen profiles as the 5th-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 22 games at home (+10.70 Units / 40% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 59 of their last 93 games (+18.45 Units / 15% ROI)
• Bryce Harper has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.90 Units / 48% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 5.02 vs Minnesota Twins 3.98

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