Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals Prediction & Picks 8/25/2024

• Date: August 25, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kolby Allard - Phillies
  • Seth Lugo - Royals

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to host the Philadelphia Phillies on August 25, 2024, both teams find themselves in solid positions within their respective divisions. The Royals hold a record of 72-57, showcasing a strong season, while the Phillies are faring even better at 75-54, marking their campaign as exceptional. This matchup is particularly intriguing as it’s the third game of the series, adding to the intensity of the competition.

In their last game, the Royals were beaten handily by the Phillies, who scored in double figures in an 11-2 win yesterday. The starting pitchers for this matchup will be Seth Lugo for the Royals and Kolby Allard for the Phillies. Lugo, a right-handed pitcher, has been a reliable asset this season with a 14-7 record and an impressive 3.02 ERA. However, his 3.94 xFIP suggests he may not maintain this level of performance moving forward. On the other hand, Allard, a left-hander, has had limited starts this year, but with a 3.46 ERA, he has shown flashes of promise despite being ranked among the less effective pitchers in MLB.

The projections indicate a high-scoring affair, with the Royals expected to score around 6.03 runs and the Phillies at 5.89 runs. The Royals' offense ranks 12th overall, while the Phillies come in at 9th, providing a solid backdrop for an engaging game. Additionally, the Royals' bullpen is ranked 18th, which is average, while the Phillies boast a stronger bullpen at 6th. Given Seth Lugo's ability to limit walks against a high-walk Phillies lineup, the Royals may have the edge in this matchup.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Compared to the average starting pitcher, Kolby Allard has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an -9.9 fewer adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Brandon Marsh has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.6-mph to 98.9-mph in the past week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies' bullpen ranks as the 6th-best out of all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Seth Lugo's higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this season (53.6% compared to 48.2% last season) figures to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.282) may lead us to conclude that Freddy Fermin has had positive variance on his side this year with his .339 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Hunter Renfroe pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.9% — 98th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 4th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 37 of their last 63 games at home (+11.85 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 20 away games (+10.85 Units / 47% ROI)
• Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+7.85 Units / 39% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 5.7 vs Kansas City Royals 6.12

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