Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, Odds & Picks – 7/7/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Details

• Date: July 7, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael Mercado - Phillies
  • Reynaldo Lopez - Braves

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies clash on July 7, 2024, at Truist Park in an intriguing National League East matchup. Both teams are enjoying successful seasons, with the Braves at 48-39 and the Phillies leading the division at 58-31. This game marks the third in the series between these two contenders.

The Braves are projected to start right-hander Reynaldo Lopez, who has been a steady presence with a 6-2 record and an impressive 1.83 ERA. However, his 3.80 xFIP suggests some underlying luck that might catch up to him. Despite this, Lopez ranks as the #80 best starting pitcher according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, which places him above average in the league. His high-flyball rate (36 FB%) could spell trouble against a power-heavy Phillies lineup, which ranks 5th in MLB with 106 home runs.

On the other mound, the Phillies are sending out Michael Mercado, who has had just one start this year but boasts an excellent 1.50 ERA. However, his 4.18 xFIP indicates he's been quite fortunate, and projection systems are not kind, ranking him among the worst in MLB. Mercado is projected to allow 2.6 earned runs and last only 3.9 innings, which could strain the bullpen early.

Offensively, the Phillies have been one of the best teams in baseball, ranking 4th overall according to talent projections. They also rank 3rd in batting average, 5th in home runs, and 4th in stolen bases, making them a well-rounded offensive threat. Trea Turner has been on a tear over the last week, hitting .444 with four home runs and 11 RBIs.

The Braves' offense, while solid, ranks more middle-of-the-pack at 14th overall. Ozzie Albies has been their standout performer recently, batting .417 with two home runs and a 1.125 OPS over the last week.

Pitching depth could be a deciding factor in this game. While the Braves have a good bullpen ranked 8th in the Power Rankings, the Phillies' bullpen is even better, ranked 2nd. Atlanta is favored with a -170 moneyline and an implied win probability of 61%. Given the pitching matchups and the Phillies' potent offense, this game has the potential to be a tightly contested battle.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Michael Mercado is projected to throw 80 pitches in today's game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 4th-least on the slate.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Brandon Marsh is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Brandon Marsh has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 3rd-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Reynaldo Lopez has relied on his fastball a lot this year, though: 56.6% of the time, checking in at the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Marcell Ozuna has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 98.8-mph average to last year's 96.5-mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Today’s version of the Braves projected lineup is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .320 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .331 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 70 games (+24.80 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 49 of their last 75 games (+20.40 Units / 15% ROI)
• Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in 31 of his last 37 games (+19.90 Units / 28% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.22 vs Atlanta Braves 5.07

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