Philadelphia Phillies at Toronto Blue Jays Prediction For 9/4/2024

• Date: September 4, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cristopher Sanchez - Phillies
  • Bowden Francis - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

As the Philadelphia Phillies face off against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre on September 4, 2024, both teams find themselves at contrasting ends of the spectrum. The Phillies, boasting an impressive record of 82-56, are firmly in the playoff hunt, while the Blue Jays sit at 67-73, struggling through a disappointing season. This matchup is particularly crucial for the Phillies as they aim to solidify their postseason position.

In their last game, the Phillies showcased their dominance with a solid victory, while the Blue Jays continue to seek answers after a lackluster performance. Toronto’s pitcher Bowden Francis, who is projected to start, has had a decent year with an ERA of 3.66, but his 4.25 FIP indicates he may have been a bit fortunate. Francis has struggled with fly balls, which could play into the hands of a powerful Phillies lineup that ranks 6th in home runs this season.

On the other side, Cristopher Sanchez, projected to pitch for Philadelphia, has been a standout performer with a 3.49 ERA and an impressive 2.94 FIP, suggesting he has been somewhat unlucky this season. Sanchez's ability to induce ground balls (60% GB rate) could neutralize the Blue Jays' lack of power, as they rank 27th in home runs this season.

Betting markets are leaning towards the Phillies, who have an implied team total of 4.19 runs compared to the Blue Jays' 3.81 runs. With both teams’ current form in mind, expect a tightly contested game, but the Phillies appear to have the edge in this matchup.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Over his last 3 outings, Cristopher Sanchez has suffered a big decrease in his fastball spin rate: from 2117 rpm over the entire season to 2058 rpm of late.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Trea Turner has been lucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .299 mark is significantly inflated relative to his .255 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies' bullpen grades out as the 4th-best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Bowden Francis projects for 1.3 walks in this matchup, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Davis Schneider has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (50% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 84th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 37 games at home (+14.10 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 35 of their last 56 games (+12.40 Units / 19% ROI)
• Spencer Horwitz has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 22 games (+13.40 Units / 61% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.91 vs Toronto Blue Jays 3.93

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