Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins Pick For 9/6/2024

• Date: September 6, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zack Wheeler - Phillies
  • Edward Cabrera - Marlins

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

With the Philadelphia Phillies sitting comfortably in a playoff race at 84-56, they are facing the Miami Marlins, who are struggling with a record of 52-88. This matchup is critical for the Phillies, who are looking to maintain momentum in their pursuit of a division title. The Marlins, on the other hand, are simply aiming to finish the season strong, especially after their last outing where they suffered a disappointing defeat.

This game on September 6, 2024, at LoanDepot Park sees the Marlins projected to start Edward Cabrera against the Phillies' ace, Zack Wheeler. Cabrera has had a tough season, with a 3-6 record and a poor ERA of 5.33. Although he is ranked as the 103rd best starting pitcher according to advanced metrics, the projections suggest he could perform better based on his xFIP of 4.05. However, Cabrera's high walk rate of 12.4% could prove problematic against a patient Phillies lineup that excels at drawing walks.

On the flip side, Zack Wheeler has been stellar this season with a 13-6 record and an outstanding ERA of 2.63. He currently ranks 6th best among MLB starters, and projections indicate he should have a solid outing, projecting to pitch around 6.0 innings while allowing just 2.0 earned runs. Wheeler’s ability to limit walks, coupled with his high strikeout potential (7.1 per game), gives the Phillies a significant advantage.

The Marlins' offense ranks a dismal 29th in MLB, struggling particularly to generate home runs, while the Phillies boast one of the league's best offenses, ranking 5th overall. With a projected team total of 4.43 runs, Philadelphia looks poised for a strong offensive showing, especially given the Marlins’ ineffective bullpen, ranked 26th. Despite the Marlins being a significant underdog with a moneyline of +185, this matchup strongly favors the Phillies as they look to continue their playoff push.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Zack Wheeler's change-up utilization has increased by 7.2% from last season to this one (0.4% to 7.6%) .

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Bryce Harper is apt to have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The 5th-best projected offense of the day in terms of overall batting skill belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Edward Cabrera’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 outings (2188 rpm) has been a significant dropoff from than his seasonal rate (2245 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.284) suggests that Xavier Edwards has had positive variance on his side this year with his .341 actual batting average.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins' bullpen profiles as the 5th-worst among all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 47 games (+16.00 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 41 games (+12.65 Units / 26% ROI)
• Bryce Harper has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 38 games (+13.00 Units / 27% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 5.3 vs Miami Marlins 3.55

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