Oakland Athletics vs Texas Rangers Prediction & Picks 8/31/2024

• Date: August 31, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Joey Estes - Athletics
  • Cody Bradford - Rangers

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

As the Texas Rangers prepare to face the Oakland Athletics on August 31, 2024, both teams are looking to shake off disappointing seasons. The Rangers sit at 63-72, while the Athletics are struggling even further with a 59-76 record. This matchup is crucial for both teams, especially after the Rangers lost their previous game against the Athletics, highlighting their need to bounce back.

On the mound, the Rangers will send out Cody Bradford, who has been a bright spot in their rotation. With a solid 3.31 ERA and a 4-2 record over 8 starts, Bradford is viewed as an average pitcher according to advanced stats, ranking 95th among approximately 350 MLB starters. However, he faces a significant challenge against the Athletics, who boast the 4th best home run total in the league with 132 long balls this season. Bradford's tendency to allow fly balls (44% FB%) could play into the Athletics' power advantage.

Joey Estes, the Athletics' projected starter, has had a rough season as well. With a 4.37 ERA and a 5.20 xFIP, Estes is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB this year. He’s managed to maintain a 6-6 record over 18 starts, but his lack of depth—projecting to pitch only 4.9 innings—could put the Athletics' bullpen under pressure against a Rangers offense that, despite ranking 24th overall, has shown flashes of potential.

The Rangers are favored in this matchup with a moneyline of -155, reflecting a projected team total of 4.66 runs. Meanwhile, the Athletics are seen as underdogs at +135, with a projected total of 3.84 runs. With both teams struggling, this game offers an opportunity for the Rangers to regain some momentum against a fellow bottom-dweller.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Joey Estes has utilized his fastball a lot this year, though: 55% of the time, checking in at the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Jacob Wilson is an extreme groundball batter and faces the strong infield defense of Texas (#2-best of the day).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

In today's matchup, Daz Cameron is at a disadvantage facing the league's 6th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.8% rate (98th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Among all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-best infield defense belongs to the Texas Rangers.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Wyatt Langford has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (56% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Texas Rangers have been the 2nd-unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in the future

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 62 games at home (+20.35 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 away games (+10.90 Units / 54% ROI)
• Tyler Nevin has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 away games (+8.35 Units / 20% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 3.86 vs Texas Rangers 4.91

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