Oakland Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Pick & Preview – 7/25/2024

Oakland Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels Details

• Date: July 25, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ross Stripling - Athletics
  • Kenny Rosenberg - Angels

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

On July 25, 2024, the Los Angeles Angels will host the Oakland Athletics at Angel Stadium in an American League West showdown. While neither team is making a strong playoff push this season, with the Angels sitting at 45-57 and the Athletics at 41-63, this game offers an intriguing matchup between two struggling clubs.

The Angels will send left-handed pitcher Kenny Rosenberg to the mound for his first start of the season. Although Rosenberg has struggled in his bullpen appearances, with a 6.30 ERA, his 5.33 xFIP suggests he's been a bit unlucky and could see improvement. On the flip side, the Athletics will counter with right-hander Ross Stripling, who has a 5.82 ERA and a 1-9 record. Like Rosenberg, Stripling’s 4.46 xFIP points to some bad luck and potential for better performance.

The offenses for both squads have had their ups and downs. The Angels' lineup ranks 25th in MLB overall, with a notable 7th place in stolen bases. However, their power and batting average rankings are nothing to write home about, sitting at 20th and 22nd, respectively. Nolan Schanuel has been a bright spot for the Angels recently, hitting .412 with a 1.088 OPS over the last week.

The Athletics' offense is a mixed bag as well. While they rank 18th overall, their team batting average is a lowly 27th. However, they hold a surprising 4th place in home runs, making them a consistent long-ball threat. Lawrence Butler has been red-hot over the last week, batting .591 with a 1.758 OPS, 13 hits, and 7 RBIs.

From a betting perspective, the game is expected to be closely contested, with the odds giving both teams an implied win probability of 50%. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives a slight edge to the Angels with a 52% win probability. Given the Athletics' high strikeout rate and Rosenberg's potential for improvement, the Angels might just have a slight advantage in this matchup.

Expect a high-scoring affair as both teams have high implied team totals of 4.50 runs each. While the Angels' bullpen ranks 26th, the Athletics' relievers are a more respectable 17th, potentially giving Oakland an edge in the later innings. However, given the overall context and projections, a slight lean towards the Angels might be warranted.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Ross Stripling's 91-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 18th percentile out of all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Abraham Toro has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (89% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Oakland Athletics have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Zack Gelof, Shea Langeliers, Brent Rooker).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Compared to average, Kenny Rosenberg has been given a below-average leash this year, throwing an -8.5 fewer adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Logan O'Hoppe has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.2-mph dropping to 81.9-mph over the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Los Angeles Angels bullpen projects as the 5th-worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 25 of their last 38 games at home (+9.85 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 34 games (+8.05 Units / 19% ROI)
• Brent Rooker has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 29 games (+11.75 Units / 40% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 4.97 vs Los Angeles Angels 5.12

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