Oakland Athletics vs Chicago White Sox Prediction & Picks 9/13/2024

• Date: September 13, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brady Basso - Athletics
  • Garrett Crochet - White Sox

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

As the Chicago White Sox prepare to face the Oakland Athletics on September 13, 2024, both teams are looking to turn around disappointing seasons. The White Sox sit at the bottom of the American League with a dismal 33-114 record, while the Athletics, at 64-83, are also struggling but have shown some flashes of competitiveness. This matchup is particularly intriguing as it marks the first game in their series, and both teams are coming off tough stretches.

The White Sox's last game ended in a loss that sealed a three-game sweep at the hands of the Cleveland Guardians. Meanwhile, the Oakland Athletics dropped a game to the Houston Astros in their last outing. The projections indicate that Garrett Crochet, the White Sox's starting pitcher, is an elite talent, ranking as the 3rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. Despite his 6-11 record and a solid ERA of 3.83, Crochet has been unlucky this season, indicated by his xFIP of 2.46, suggesting he may be primed for a breakout performance against a high-strikeout Athletics lineup.

Brady Basso, on the other hand, will take the mound for Oakland. Although he boasts an impressive ERA of 1.93, he has only made one start this season and has been projected to struggle against a high-strikeout pitcher like Crochet. With the White Sox's offense ranking 30th in MLB, they are unlikely to capitalize on Basso's flyball tendencies.

The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating a potentially close contest. Betting markets have the Athletics slightly favored at -125, but with the White Sox's elite pitcher on the mound, this game could defy expectations.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Brady Basso has a large reverse platoon split and is fortunate enough to be facing 8 opposite-handed bats in this game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Despite posting a .400 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Brent Rooker has had some very good luck given the .041 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .359.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Tyler Nevin has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 9th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Over his previous 3 games started, Garrett Crochet has experienced a substantial spike in his fastball velocity: from 96.5 mph over the whole season to 97.5 mph recently.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Korey Lee has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (87% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

It may be wise to expect better results for the Chicago White Sox offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 42 games (+1.30 Units / 3% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 61 games (+15.15 Units / 23% ROI)
• Lawrence Butler has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 31 of his last 46 games (+15.20 Units / 28% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 4.27 vs Chicago White Sox 4.17

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