Oakland Athletics vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Pick & Prediction & Preview

• Date: April 28, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Paul Blackburn - Athletics
  • Albert Suarez - Orioles
• Run Line: Athletics 1.5 -130, Orioles -1.5 110
• Money Line: Athletics 160, Orioles -185
• Total (Over/Under): 8.5

Oakland Athletics vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Oakland Athletics - 37%
• Baltimore Orioles - 63%

Projected Win %:

• Oakland Athletics - 38.98%
• Baltimore Orioles - 61.02%

Oakland Athletics vs Baltimore Orioles Game Preview & Prediction

In a highly anticipated American League matchup, the Baltimore Orioles are set to host the Oakland Athletics on April 28, 2024, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Orioles, with an impressive record of 17-9 this season, are having a great year, while the Athletics are struggling with a 11-17 record, making it a tough season for them.

The Orioles are projected to start right-handed pitcher Albert Suarez, who has had a solid performance this year. Suarez has started two games, with a win/loss record of 1-0 and an outstanding ERA of 0.00. However, his 4.05 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky so far and could face some challenges going forward. On the other side, the Athletics are projected to start right-handed pitcher Paul Blackburn. Blackburn has started five games, with a win/loss record of 2-1 and an impressive ERA of 2.03. Like Suarez, his 3.54 xFIP indicates that he may regress slightly in future performances.

Both teams have had different levels of success this season. The Orioles boast the #4 best offense in MLB, showcasing their strong hitting capabilities. They rank #14 in team batting average, #17 in home runs, and #17 in stolen bases. On the other hand, the Athletics have struggled offensively, ranking #28 in MLB. They sit at the bottom of the league in team batting average, #30, but excel in stolen bases, ranking #5.

When it comes to the bullpens, the Orioles have the #12 best bullpen in MLB, according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Athletics rank #27. This suggests that the Orioles may have an advantage in the later innings of the game.

In terms of betting odds, the Orioles are the clear favorites with a moneyline of -180, giving them an implied win probability of 62%. The Athletics, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +155, with an implied win probability of 38%. Based on the current odds, the Orioles have a high implied team total of 4.82 runs, while the Athletics have a lower implied team total of 3.68 runs.

With the Orioles' strong offense and solid pitching, they have the edge in this matchup. However, baseball is an unpredictable game, and anything can happen on any given day. Fans and bettors alike will be eagerly watching to see how this game unfolds between the Orioles and the Athletics.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Paul Blackburn has tallied 18.6 outs per game per started this year, placing in the 94th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

J.J. Bleday is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Baltimore (#3-worst on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The Oakland Athletics have 4 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Lawrence Butler, Brent Rooker, Ryan Noda, Kyle McCann).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Given his reverse platoon split, Albert Suarez encounters a tough challenge going up against 6 bats in the projected lineup who share his hand in today's matchup.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Adley Rutschman is in the 92nd percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (48% rate since the start of last season).

• Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 82 of their last 137 games (+24.40 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 85 games (+9.75 Units / 10% ROI)

Athletics vs Orioles Prediction: Athletics 4.08 - Orioles 4.87

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.