Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners Pick For 9/27/2024

• Date: September 27, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • JP Sears - Athletics
  • Luis Castillo - Mariners

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

As the Seattle Mariners prepare to host the Oakland Athletics on September 27, 2024, at T-Mobile Park, both teams find themselves at different ends of the American League West standings. The Mariners, with an 82-77 record, are having an above-average season, while the Athletics, at 69-90, are struggling through a difficult campaign.

In their last outing, the Mariners showcased their offensive capabilities with an impressive 8-1 victory over the Houston Astros. Julio Rodriguez has been a bright spot for Seattle, boasting a .419 average and a 1.258 OPS over the past week. Meanwhile, the Athletics eked out a narrow 3-2 win against the Texas Rangers, with Tyler Soderstrom leading their recent offensive efforts with a .313 average over the last seven days.

The pitching matchup features Luis Castillo for the Mariners, who ranks as the 52nd-best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Despite a solid 3.64 ERA this season, Castillo's recent outings have been inconsistent, including a brief three-inning stint on September 8. On the other side, JP Sears takes the mound for Oakland. While Sears has a serviceable 4.43 ERA, his last start was rocky, yielding six earned runs over five innings.

The Mariners’ offense ranks 22nd in MLB, struggling with a low batting average but showing power with a 13th-place rank in home runs. Conversely, the Athletics have the 21st-best offense and rank 8th in home runs, highlighting their power potential. However, both teams face challenges with their respective bullpens, with Seattle ranked 24th and Oakland a surprising 9th, despite their overall struggles.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Mariners are projected as a big favorite with a 65% win probability, offering potential value for bettors given their implied win probability of 60%. Expect Seattle to capitalize on their recent momentum and Castillo's strong pitching potential as they aim for another victory against the Athletics.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

JP Sears's fastball velocity has dropped 1.1 mph this year (91.3 mph) below where it was last year (92.4 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Shea Langeliers has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 99.2-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 91.3-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Shea Langeliers pulls many of his flyballs (37.6% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Compared to average, Luis Castillo has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an additional 6.1 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Oakland's 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Cal Raleigh, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cal Raleigh, the Mariners's expected catcher today, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 68 games at home (+10.55 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 33 away games (+9.90 Units / 26% ROI)
• Victor Robles has hit the Hits Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+1.65 Units / 15% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 3.28 vs Seattle Mariners 4.24

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